JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 18, 7:32 AM EDT
705
FXUS63 KJKL 181132
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
732 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times through
Thursday, with the potential for high water or flash flooding.
- Seasonably warm high temperatures are forecast through most of
the week, with heat then building during the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 418 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
The latest surface analysis is quieter than this time yesterday as
isolated boundaries have been consolidated into synoptic features.
The first, a surface low is moving across southern Canada with a
cold front extending to the southwest. The second, a surface low
riding along the aforementioned cold front that's parked over the
mid-Mississippi Valley. Locally, the area is parked under the warm
sector of the southern Canadian low with the warm front draped over
the Mid-Atlantic. Also, radar is starting to light up with
widespread showers that are developing across the CWA.
Through the remainder of the day, shower and thunderstorm chances
will continue to exist as the area remains in the warm sector, ahead
of an approaching cold front. As with previous days, these storms
appear to be efficient and can put down quiet a bit of rain in a
short period of time. However, PWs and forecast soundings aren't as
favorable as they were in previous forecasts but the threat for
hydro issues won't diminish for the rest of the forecast period.
While showers and thunderstorm chances continue to exist throughout
the day, the cold front, will continue to track eastward toward the
area. Through the overnight Wednesday into Thursday, the front will
track eastward and begin to cross through the Commonwealth through
the day on Thursday. Along and head of the front, showers and
thunderstorms will be likely. Some storms, with this front could
push severe limits but widespread severe weather isn't expected as
favorable shear isn't in place and storms won't be able to grow and
strengthen. FROPA won't be through the CWA at the end of the period
but surface high pressure will be nudging into the region behind the
exiting front.
Overall, a stormy and rainy forecast period will exist. Highs for
today will be in the mid to upper-80s with Thursday's cold front
causing temperatures to dip into the upper-70s to low-80s for
Thursday. Overnight lows will start in the mid to upper-60s before
falling into the low 60s for Thursday night.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 418 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
Surface high pressure will build into the region for Friday and will
persist through much of the weekend. Accompanying surface high
pressure, more summer-like temperatures are expected through the
weekend and into early next week. Highs are forecast to start in the
mid-80s for Friday before climbing into the 90s for Saturday and
remaining in the low to mid-90s through the end of the forecast
period. Thunderstorms will try to develop Monday afternoon but
chances are extremely low and have been diminishing with each
forecast package.
In summary, surface high pressure ushers summertime to eastern
Kentucky. Highs will start in the mid-80s for Friday before starting
to climb into the low to mid-90s from Saturday through the rest of
the period. Overnight lows will remain in the upper-60s to
lower-70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
Terminals are between IFR and MVFR this morning as showers are
working their way across eastern Kentucky. Over the next couple
of hours, terminals will gradually improve to VFR and remain VFR
through the afternoon. Later this evening, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to redevelop bringing reduced
visibilities with gusty and erratic winds through the end of the
forecast window.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...VORST
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 18, 7:32 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202506181132-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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