ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 9, 5:15 PM EDT
511
FXUS61 KILN 092115
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
515 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and storms are expected through late afternoon before drier
conditions develop. Surface high pressure will offer dry conditions
and near normal temperatures through midweek. Warmer and more humid
air returns to the region by the end of the week into the upcoming
weekend. This return to a warmer and more humid pattern will bring
renewed daily chances for showers and storms Friday through Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Update...Strong to severe convection that impacted the Scioto River
Valley this afternoon has pushed east of ILN/s area. With more
stable air working into the region have cancelled the severe
thunderstorm watch that was in effect in ILN/s area and tweaked the
pops down.
Previous discussion... Stacked deep low pressure over the Western
Great Lakes to translate east thru the Great LAkes overnight and into
southern Canada Tuesday.
In response to a lead shortwave a low level southerly jet increasing
to 35 to 40 kts was offering an increase in moisture ahead of a
surface cold front. A band of showers with embedded thunderstorms
will continue to develop ahead of this front across the southeast
half of ILN/s area this aftn where MLCAPE values of 1000-1250 J/KG
exist. Effect shear of 25-30 kts will aid storm development with a
few stronger updrafts capable of producing strong to severe damaging
wind gusts in the far east thru the afternoon.
The main axis of precipitation will shift east with chances decreasing
from west to east by late afternoon/early evening. A few additional
showers will be possible across west central Ohio day this evening
as another shortwave rotates around the mid level low and a
secondary front moves into the area. Have limited this mention to
slight chance pops thru midnight. Drier air filters into the region
overnight with skies clearing.
Temperatures tonight drop to lows in the lower and middle 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Stacked deep low pressure to translate east thru the Great Lakes
overnight and into southern Canada Tuesday. Colder temperatures aloft
firmly in the post frontal environment will lead to scattered to
broken fair weather cumulus coverage Tuesday. The best coverage of
clouds will occur across the north where the coldest temperatures
aloft will exist. Highs on Tuesday will range from the lower/middle
70s north to the upper 70s south.
As the low pulls away from the area into southern Canada the mid
level flow will become northwesterly. Surface high pressure will
build across the area Tuesday night. Diurnally driven cumulus clouds
will give way to clearing early.
Temperatures to drop to temperatures slightly below normal with lows
ranging from the lower/middle 50s east to near 60 west.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A surface high slowly drifts east of the Ohio Valley and weakens
Wednesday through Thursday evening. Southwesterly flow northwest of
the high leads to warming temperatures and increasing humidity
during this timeframe. Forecast highs are in the lower 80s on
Wednesday and middle 80s on Thursday. Lows are forecast to be in the
lower to middle 60s.
Rain chances return on Friday and into the weekend. Increasing
instability each afternoon should provide fuel for storms especially
along and south of I-70. A series of weak disturbances and boundary
dropping in from the north may help spawn storms in the favorable
thermodynamic environment.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers and embedded thunderstorms ahead of a cold front will affect
the TAF sites thru mid aftn. The best coverage of storms will be over
KCMH/KLCK where some of the storms may contain gusty winds.
The main axis of precipitation will shift east with chances
decreasing from west to east by late afternoon. Some temporary MVFR
ceilings will be likely until drier air advects into the region.
Skies expected to go mostly clear late in the day/early this evening
with some increase in VFR clouds late in the evening as a secondary
front approaches from the northwest. A narrow line of showers will be
possible with this secondary front but best coverage should stay
north of the TAF sites, so have not included a mention at this time.
Colder air aloft will lead to VFR cumulus cloud ceilings development
Tuesday late morning/afternoon.
Southwest winds become more westerly this aftn at 10-12kt with gusts
15-20kts. These winds subside past sunset. Winds will go out of the
west-northwest overnight and increase to 10-12 kts Tuesday with
gusts up to 20 kts - especially over the northern TAFs sites.
OUTLOOK...Storms will be possible Friday night into Saturday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...AR
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 9, 5:15 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202506092115-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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