WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Jun 7, 5:59 AM CDT
363
AGUS74 KWCO 071102
AHDNWC
Area Hydrological Discussion #110 - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL
559 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025
POTENTIAL IMPACTS...Flash, urban, and small stream flooding
WHERE...Northeast Pennsylvania, southern New York, western
Connecticut, western Massachusetts, southern Vermont, and southern
New Hampshire
WHEN...Through this afternoon
FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
QPF...1 - 2.5" (HRRR)
Rain Rates...1 - 1.5"/hr (HRRR)
Soil Moisture...55 - 75% RSM (0 - 10 cm, NASA SPoRT)
Streamflows...Normal to Above Normal (USGS)
DISCUSSION...
Moderate rainfall will bring flash, urban, and small stream flooding
to the area of concern through this afternoon. Soils are wet from
recent rainfall, which may limit infiltration capacity, leading to
runoff issues. Streamflows are generally above normal, suggesting
that channel capacity is limited to handle excess runoff and lead to
isolated out-of-bank rises. Areas of steep terrain may help to
enhance rainfall rates. Urban areas will be particularly vulnerable
to flooding impacts. The NWM Short-Range Forecast continues to
highlight the area for rapid-onset flooding, with the greatest
consistency across southern New York. Lower annual-exceedance
probabilities are rather isolated, but some reaches are signalling
from to 10-2%. Given these signals from the NWM, flooding impacts
should remain isolated.
GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd
Additional National Water Center products are available at
weather.gov/owp/operations
//JAW
ATTN...WFO...BTV...BOX...BGM...ALY...OKX...PHI...GYX
ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...WPC
Source: WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Jun 7, 5:59 AM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202506071059-KWCO-AGUS74-AHDNWC)
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