LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 31, 9:32 PM CDT ...New UPDATE...
427
FXUS64 KLIX 010232
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
932 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025
No significant changes needed to going forecast this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025
Weak high surface pressure will remain in place through the
remainder of the weekend keeping the weather generally quiet. The
biggest question is whether isolated to widely scattered showers
will pop up late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening as a fast-
moving upper disturbance barrels into the area embedded within the
overall upper trough axis.
Since the timing looks to coincide with peak daytime heating, it
seems we should see at least a few showers develop as the
shortwave moves into and through the area. And indeed, most CAM
guidance agrees on this scenario, though the specifics are quite
varied. That being said, have continued to carry generally 15-20%
POPs to account for the low-end, location-specific rain chances.
Regarding temperatures, expect lows in the mid to upper 60s north
and upper 60s to lower 70s south, with highs rebounding into the
upper 80s on Sunday. This is near normal for this time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025
An elongated upper high will control the area weather Monday and
Tuesday leading to generally quiet conditions and a gradual
warming trend as surface high pressure slides east of the local
area with warm and moist air moving back into the area from the
Gulf. Expect temperatures to be near or slightly above normal with
no significant rain chances.
The upper high begins to break down Wednesday as a fast-moving
upper disturbance moves toward the middle Mississippi valley. The
front associated with this system will stall WELL northwest of the
area, keeping us entrenched in a warm and humid airmass. Expect
to see typical summer-like showers and storms mainly during the
afternoon and early evening hours driven by the diurnal heating
cycle.
Beyond Friday, please resist the urge buy into any individual
model forecasts regarding a tropical low that may or may not form
around central America during the second week of June associated
with the Central American gyre (CAG). The CAG is a seasonal area of
low pressure that typically forms near Central America during the
May-June timeframe. Tropical lows associated with the CAG can
develop on either the Pacific or Atlantic side of the continent,
and their specific genesis locations greatly affect their eventual
paths. With that said, there is little to no confidence 7+ days
out regarding whether or where the CAG might result in
cyclogenesis. Remember to make sure you are following reliable
sources for your weather information.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025
VFR conditions across the area, and expected to continue for most
or all of the forecast period. Cloud cover could become a little
more extensive Sunday afternoon as a shortwave approaches from the
northwest, but temperature/dew point spreads would indicate cloud
bases should remain above FL040. There is a low-end threat for
TSRA late Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening with the
aforementioned shortwave, but confidence is not high enough to
carry at a particular terminal that far out in the forecast.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025
A stalled boundary over the northern Gulf will keep winds light
and somewhat variable today. The front will move northward again
Sunday with a return to onshore flow. As the gradient gradually
tightens, expect wind speeds to slowly strengthen to 10 to 15
knots by midweek. Rain chances will generally remain low for the
remainder of today and tomorrow, but will gradually increase
through midweek with a return to daily scattered showers and
storms Wed through Fri.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 63 86 65 88 / 0 20 10 10
BTR 67 88 70 90 / 0 20 10 10
ASD 64 88 68 89 / 0 10 20 10
MSY 70 89 73 89 / 0 10 20 10
GPT 66 86 70 87 / 0 10 20 10
PQL 64 87 67 88 / 0 10 20 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...DM
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 31, 9:32 PM CDT ...New UPDATE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202506010232-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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