ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 1, 10:20 AM EDT
102
FXUS61 KILN 011420
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1020 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will predominate into the middle of the week.
Temperatures will be on a warming trend. The chance of showers and
thunderstorms will return late in the week as a cold front slowly
approaches the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Only minor tweak to forecast was slight lowering of the daytime high,
as certainly the diurnal temp increase is muted from previous
forecast. Perhaps an effect of the high smoke/haze. Still upper
60s-mid 70s, however. Surface high centered over the central Great
Lakes will sink south into the Ohio Valley through this
afternoon/evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Surface high over the area tonight will slowly move southeast on
Monday. Meanwhile, mid level heights will rise as ridging works its
way westward. The atmosphere will be quite dry throughout the column.
Could still be dealing with some obscurations aloft from smoke.
Valley fog may extend a little bit further west than this morning.
Good radiational cooling conditions tonight will result in
temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s, but there will be a
substantial rebound with highs getting into the upper 70s to around
80.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Expansive H5 ridge across a large portion of the central CONUS will
be the primary weather driver for the start of the work week. Ridge
axis will begin to align itself across the Midwest region by
Tuesday. The higher H5 heights will promote seasonably warm
temperatures across the Ohio Valley, with highs climbing into the
middle 80s. Broad area of surface high pressure will keep conditions
dry, but return flow will also be enhanced. This will lead to a
response in surface dewpoints on Tuesday as they begin to increase
to the middle 50s to near 60, making the air feel a little more
humid.
Wednesday is expected to be the warmest day of the week as highs
reach the middle 80s and perhaps a few locations hitting the 90
degree mark. More locations could reach 90 degrees if conditions
remain dry during the day. The ridge axis will begin to slide
eastward, with an elongated boundary stretching from the Great Lakes
down into the Ark-La-Tex region. This slow moving boundary will
eventually be responsible for an increase in shower and thunderstorm
activity late Wednesday, persisting into Thursday and Friday.
However, pcpn will likely be more focused along/NW of I-71 to start,
but as the boundary gradually pushes eastward, shower/storm chances
will migrate with it. Still uncertain on severe chances this far
out, and global models don't paint a large QPF footprint in our CWA
with this particular system (especially near and south of the OH
River). This slow moving cold front may stall out just south of the
Ohio River on Friday, which could lead to continued chances for
scattered pcpn, especially in our southern counties. Daytime high
temps will return to near normal heading into the start of the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some cirrus will pass across the area early in the period and a few
diurnal cumulus are possible in the Cincinnati area this afternoon.
Otherwise, there will continue to be some smoke aloft that is being
reported the same as cirrus. River valley fog may bring visibility
restrictions at KLUK late in the period.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 1, 10:20 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202506011420-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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