IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 30, 2:02 PM EDT
166
FXUS63 KIWX 301802
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
202 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chance (30-50%) for scattered showers and isolated storms
this evening. Storms could produce wind gusts to 40 mph.
- Seasonably cool and dry this weekend before a notable warm-up
ensues early next week.
- The next opportunity for showers and storms arrive on
Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025
A potent shortwave diving south through the western Great Lakes will
lend a shot of mid level dcva and ascent on the nose on a
cyclonically curved ~60kt 500 mb jet this evening. Moisture quality
is poor, but this forcing and weak instability (steep lapse rates)
in advance of an associated backdoor cold front should be enough to
generate scattered showers and perhaps a storm or two capable of
wind gusts to 40 mph. This system will also drive smoke (haze)
from ongoing canadian wildfires south into portions of the
forecast area late this afternoon into tonight. The bulk of the
smoke likely remains aloft per upstream obs and HRRR progs.
Dry, stable and seasonable cool air funnels in post-frontal late
tonight into Saturday within breezy northerly flow as shortwaves
merge into a large negative height anomaly over southeast Canada and
Northeast. Models suggests that the primary smoke plume out of
Canada will push west of the local area for the bulk of the weekend.
Warm-up associated with a transition to a progressive flow regime
remains on track into early next week as low level flow becomes
southwesterly under an upper ridge building overhead. A series of
pacific shortwaves then take aim on the region for the mid to late
week periods, flattening the upper ridge axis. This process likely
forces an oscillating frontal boundary into an increasingly moist
airmass for convective chances as earlier as Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025
A frontal boundary will pass through both TAF sites during the first
12 hours or so of the period. Scattered showers attempting to
develop across WI will dive SE and arrive near/after 00Z Sat at KSBN
and a few hours later at KFWA. The intensity of the showers and
possible impacts remains uncertain as they will be mainly driven by
steep lapse rates and limited instability that will diminish near
the time of their arrival. Have maintained a prob30 thunder mention
at KSBN where a rumble of thunder does exist (albeit likely less
than 30%). While a tempo group remains for KFWA it is possible
little if any shower activity reaches the airport. Wind gusts will
increase near/behind the front for a period than diminish.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...Air Quality Alert until 6 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ078>081-177-
277.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Fisher
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 30, 2:02 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202505301802-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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