BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 27, 6:49 PM EDT
406
FXUS61 KBOX 272249
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
649 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the coast will continue to bring dry/pleasant
weather to the region tonight into Wednesday afternoon. Unsettled weather
pattern returns Wednesday night into the early part of the
weekend. Although it won't rain the entire time, the best
chances for rain looks to be on Thursday and on Saturday.
Temperatures trend seasonable to slightly above normal. Drier
weather returns Sunday into early next week along with a slight
cooldown in temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages...
* Dry/pleasant tonight with lows in the upper 40s & 50s
Details...
A ridge of high pressure will remain in control of our weather
tonight. This will continue to result in dry/pleasant conditions
across the region. Low pressure lifting towards the Ohio Valley will
send a fair amount of mid/high level cloudiness northeastward into
our region tonight. Otherwise...the airmass is relatively dry so
despite the increasing mid/high level cloudiness expect a good night
of radiational cooling. Overnight low temps will mainly be in the
upper 40s and 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...
* A mixture of clouds/sunshine on Wed with highs m-u 70s
* Some showers arrive Wed night...mainly overnight
Details...
Wednesday...
A ridge of high pressure off the coast will remain in control of our
weather on Wed. Low pressure working towards the mid-Atlantic States
will continue to spread mid/high level cloudiness into our
region...but also expect partial sunshine at times. High temps
should top out mainly in the middle to upper 70s with very
comfortable humidity levels.
Wednesday night...
Shortwave energy over the mid-Atlantic states will lift northeast
into southern New England Wed night. While much of Wed evening will
be dry across the region...the threat for showers will increase late
Wed night into the overnight hours from southwest to northeast
through daybreak Thu. Low temps Wed night will mainly be in the
50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Unsettled Thurs thru Sat; best chances for rain on Thurs and Sat.
T-storms possible but severe/hazardous weather not expected.
* Near to above normal temps Thurs-Sat with milder lows.
* Drier weather Sunday into early next week, although temps turn
slightly cooler than normal.
Details:
Thursday Through Saturday Night:
Global ensemble means continue to depict an upper level longwave
trough over the Gt Lakes region and into the Northeast during this
period of the forecast. Although it won't be raining the entire
time, this is in general a pretty unsettled weather pattern with at
least a couple opportunities for more focused periods of showers or
embedded t-storms. The first looks to be on Thurs as a lead
shortwave trough and associated rather weak sfc frontal system move
through the Northeast. Better chances for rain on Thurs in interior
Southern New England but all areas have pretty solid chances (50-
70%) for rain. Weak subsidence after the Thu frontal system exits
should lead to reduced chances for rains (around 20-30%) before
increasing again for Sat (around 50-75%) as another shortwave trough
induces another area of low pressure to move up from the central
Appalachians. Machine-learning-trained hazard guidance from Colorado
State University doesn't indicate any specific day(s) being a
concern for severe weather, although we can't rule out some
lightning strikes here or there.
Temps in this period should run near to slightly above normal for
this time of year, but should be milder on the low temperatures and
around seasonable highs highs in the 70s. Compared to the last
few days, it will feel a touch more humid but still pretty
tolerable.
Sunday into Early Next Week:
Upper-level longwave trough still maintains itself over the
Northeast in this period, although Canadian sfc high pressure will
be building in allowing for a period of cooler and drier weather to
close the weekend and continue into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00z TAF Update:
Tonight and Wednesday: High confidence.
VFR. SSW winds of 5 to 15 knots tonight into Wednesday, highest
SW winds near the south coast, Cape and Islands. Possible
seabreeze at BOS after 17z Wed.
Wednesday night...Moderate confidence.
VFR Wed evening...but do expect some MVFR conditions along
with a round of showers to overspread much of the region from
southwest to northeast in the 4z/5z to 11z/12z Thu time frame.
Variable winds mainly 10 knots less.
BOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR, possible seabreeze after
17z. but could be brief.
BDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday through Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR
possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA, isolated TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight through Wednesday night...High Confidence.
A ridge of high pressure slowly moves east of the waters through Wed
night. It will still exert its influence over us though with winds
mainly 15 knots or less and relatively flat seas. So no marine
headlines are expected through Wed night.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Slight chance of rain showers.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/Loconto
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...Frank/Loconto
MARINE...Frank/Loconto
Source: BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 27, 6:49 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202505272249-KBOX-FXUS61-AFDBOX)
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