ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 29, 7:18 PM EDT
023
FXUS61 KILN 292318
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
718 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
After a brief dry period, rain returns to the forecast Thursday
night into Friday morning as a system passes by us along the Ohio
River. Isolated thunderstorms are possible throughout Friday
afternoon hours before high pressure works in for the weekend,
providing sunshine.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Tonight starts dry, with partly cloudy skies quickly clouding up
ahead of our next system. Overnight lows fall to the mid 50s again.
The deep, longwave, trough that has been stretched over the Great
Lakes and Midwest continues its progress east, as a vort max swings
through the base of the feature, help propagating it forward. This
energy helps drag an open wave surface low that will deepen as it
progresses through our area during the early morning hours into
Friday. Rain overspreads the region, with the most widespread rain
throughout the Tri-State, shortly before sunrise. Rain may be heavy
at times. Depending on what guidance you look at, there will be a QPF
footprint of 1.5 to 2 inches from this burst of rain likely somewhere
along northern Kentucky. 3 hour flash flood guidance through this
area is 2-2.5 inches, so hopefully we don't see widespread problems.
However, the hilly areas are always susceptible to flash flooding
and if we get any cells that move over the same area repeatedly, this
could produce localized flooding issues.
Early morning hours we're fairly stable, so not expecting too much in
terms of thunder. However, some elevated instability is able to build
in a bit later in the day...
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The base the longwave trough with the vort max swinging through will
be just passing through the CWA at the start of the Short Term. The
bulk of the precipitation associated with the deepening surface low
will have moved east, however, the residual mid level energy wrapping
around the back side may be enough to help spark some residual
showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. Weak
elevated instability builds into the region during late morning
hours, becoming more surface based by afternoon. Confidence in
afternoon storms is medium... we'll likely see a handful pop
throughout the CWA but coverage should be rather limited and storms
shouldn't be long lived. High temps reach the upper 60s, maybe low
70s for areas north of I-70, where thinner clouds exist.
Right on the heels of the previously mentioned feature, a weak cold
front will drop down from the northern Great lakes, extending from a
low up in Canada. This front will pass through the area during the
late evening into overnight hours, bringing additional chances for
showers/storms. In general, this is a weakly forced front and a
relatively dry one at that. Though, it does its job of ushering in
dry air behind it, with post frontal subsidence finally clearing out
our skies a bit more. High pressure begins to work in from the west.
Overnight lows fall to the mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Strong northwest flow in place over the weekend aloft will
lighten on Monday ahead of a building ridge in the Plains. This
ridge will enter the Ohio Valley sometime Tuesday and exit east
Tuesday night. Southwest to west flow will then take hold through
the end of the forecast.
Northwest winds on Saturday will lighten overnight as a weak ridge
builds along the Ohio River. Overnight and early Sunday, a high
pressure center/ridge will situate itself west of the region and
then be found directly over the CWA at 00Z Mon. Models diverge on
Monday with the GFS promoting a warm front over the CWA that lifts
northeast on Tuesday. Southerly flow kicks in behind it until a
cold front crosses Wed evening. The European maintains a surface
high southeast of the CWA and keeps a warm, southerly flow over
the region until a cold front enters on Thursday. The timing
difference between the two results in a polar opposite surface
field, high pressure centered over us on Thurs per the GFS, low
pressure per the European.
Next rainfall threat will occur with the late period fropa and NBM
leans toward the Euro which was a similar conclusion that was
encountered yesterday at this time. Rain chances increase slowly
from nw-se on Wed, continue a lower chance overnight and early
Thurs, increasing during the day. As forecast gets closer to this
period, timing will be more resolved and rain chances will likely
be maximized Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected for the first part of the TAF period.
Late in the overnight hours, rain will begin to move into the area
from west to east. This rain may start off with VFR conditions, but
will eventually bring MVFR to possibly IFR conditions. There is high
confidence in lower-end MVFR conditions, but less confidence in IFR.
For now, this forecast will only include IFR at KCVG/KLUK where
confidence is higher, because the rain will be heavier and moisture
will be more plentiful. For all TAF sites, the most likely timing for
rain has been included for a period of several hours. After the rain
ends, visibilities should improve to VFR, though ceilings may take
several more hours to get back to VFR levels.
Tomorrow afternoon and evening, some additional scattered shower
development is expected -- this has been covered with a PROB30 group
at each TAF site. Thunder is possible, but confidence is too low to
include for now.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible late Friday night into
Saturday morning.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Hatzos
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 29, 7:18 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202505292318-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!