BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 21, 1:09 PM EDT
783
FXUS61 KBOX 211709
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
109 PM EDT Wed May 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy with unseasonably cool high temperatures for the
remainder of this work week that will run 10 to 20 degrees
below normal. A late season Nor'eater will bring a cold
windswept heavy rain to the region tonight into early Friday.
The brunt of this storm appears to be Thursday, when wind gusts
of 40-50+ mph will be possible along the coast with pockets of
minor coastal flooding also possible. The soaking rain will
likely come to an end Friday morning, but a few showers will
remain possible Friday afternoon into Saturday. Temperatures
will slowly moderate, but still remain below normal into this
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages:
* Slightly cooler with clouds and patchy drizzle.
Weak high pressure extends from Canada into southern New England
today. While not strong enough to keep the clouds at bay, there
should be a period of weaker winds this morning. As this high
pressure moves away from our region, gusty winds begin to
return.
Slightly cooler today due to a persistent E-NE wind. Dry for
most, but cannot dismiss the idea of patchy drizzle at times.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Rain moves in tonight into Thursday.
* 1-2" of rainfall with localized 3" amounts possible. Poor-
drainage flooding possible in spots.
* ENE wind gusts of 40-50+ mph possible along the coast
Thursday, with perhaps some pockets of minor coastal flooding
during high tide
The latest guidance suite has come into better agreement, but
still some variation in track. The consensus solution takes a
late season nor-easter towards southeast MA by late Thursday.
A cold, windswept rain arrives tonight ahead of this low
pressure. The plume of moisture ahead of the system, along with
a 25-35 kt LLJ will generate a precip shield slowly expanding
into most of our region by daybreak Thursday. As the pressure
gradient tightens we'll also see winds at the surface become
increasingly gusty toward sunrise, gusting 20-30 mph but the
bulk of the rain and wind arrive later Thursday into Thursday
night.
The peak of the winds should be during Thursday afternoon and
evening. May need to consider wind headlines along the immediate
coast, Cape and islands. Do not yet have enough confidence to do
so area-wise, but thinking more along the lines of Wind
Advisories than High Wind Warnings.
While astronomical tides are not especially high, they are high
enough where some pockets of minor coastal flooding become
possible across portions of eastern MA during the time of high
tide Thursday afternoon and evening. A Coastal Flood Advisory
may eventually be needed with later forecasts.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Storm departs Thu night
* A few showers will remain possible Fri into Sat but these will
be hit-or-miss, followed may mainly dry weather Sun and Mon
* Temperatures gradually moderate through this holiday weekend,
but we probably do not break 70 until Memorial Day
Details...
After the steady rain departs Fri morning, a few showers will
remain possible at times Fri afternoon into Sat, but a washout
is not expected. A lot of these scattered showers will be
diurnally driven with anomalous shortwave energy/cold pool aloft
overhead. This anomalous upper level trough begins to shift to
the northeast Sun and Memorial Day, which should bring mainly
dry weather.
Temperatures will be slow to moderate through this weekend, but
should be closer to normal Sunday into Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18z TAFs: High confidence through tonight, then moderate
confidence Thu due to timing of lower conditions.
Essentially status quo into the evening with lower-end VFR or
MVFR cigs which could bounce up and down a bit. Aside from
spotty drizzle in eastern MA this afternoon and a few showers
this evening near BDL/BAF, steady rain arrives after 06z Thu in
western New England and 10-13z Thu in eastern MA. Expect
periods of heavier rain during the day Thu with widespread IFR
conditions and east winds gusting to 25-35kt, strongest at the
coast. Slow improvement Thu night as rain departs but MVFR/IFR
cigs are likely to persist.
BOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. Cigs may bounce up to low-end
VFR through the evening.
BDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Friday through Sunday/...
Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR.
Sunday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today Through Tonight: High confidence.
NE winds increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt this evening.
Seas may still be near 5 ft in southeast waters through
tonight. Rain arrives across the southern coastal waters late
tonight, and across the eastern coastal waters Thursday morning.
Poor visibility in moderate to heavy rainfall at times.
Increasing winds as a low pressure moves across the waters late
Thursday into Thursday night.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Rain showers, slight chance of
thunderstorms, patchy fog. Areas of visibility 1 nm or less.
Thursday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Chance of rain showers, patchy
fog. Local visibility 1 nm or less.
Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.
Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up
to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM Thursday to 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ230.
Gale Warning from 9 AM Thursday to 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ231.
Gale Warning from 9 AM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ232>235-237.
Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for
ANZ236.
Gale Warning from 9 AM Thursday to 5 AM EDT Friday for ANZ250-
251.
Gale Warning from 7 AM Thursday to 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ254.
Gale Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...Belk
Source: BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 21, 1:09 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202505211709-KBOX-FXUS61-AFDBOX)
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