LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 23, 6:42 AM EDT ...Forecast Update...
810
FXUS63 KLMK 231042
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
642 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025
...Forecast Update...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Well below normal temperatures are expected through the first part
of Memorial Day weekend.
* Continuing to monitor a low pressure system late weekend into
early next week that will bring rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. 1 to 2 inches of rain with locally higher amounts
is currently forecast.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025
Did a quick update to add some areas of dense fog to our NE CWA.
Temps have fallen to their dew point under good radiational cooling
conditions, and recent satellite imagery combined with area obs is
showing pretty decent coverage of fog across SE Indiana into the
Bluegrass. Some obs will fall below a half mile at times.
Improvement is expected by 14z or so. Issued a Special Weather
Statement to highlight the area a bit better.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025
Quiet night across the area, and expecting that trend to continue
through the short term forecast. Our area will stay situated in the
dry NW flow aloft between the closed low over New England, and an
upper ridge axis extending through the southern and central Plains.
We'll keep a light NW surface wind today, but much weaker than
yesterday as surface high pressure settles near our area tonight.
High temperatures will be similar to yesterday with values in the
north and east more confined to the 60s, and better chances for some
70s across our SW.
Do expect to have some upper cloud cover overnight, but with the
light winds and some breaks in the clouds expect some pretty cool
overnight lows. Looking for values to drop into the low and mid 40s
for many. Meanwhile, some of the typical milder spots will hang onto
the low 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025
Saturday - Tuesday Night...
Low amplitude NW flow aloft will hold over our area going into the
weekend, situated between a shallow ridge axis over the central
Plains and the closed low spinning near New England. A nearly
stationary warm front will be situated well to our SW on Saturday
while a weak perturbation slides from the eastern Plains into the
Tennessee Valley. Will continue to mention some low chances of
rainfall for southern KY on Saturday to account for this feature
getting close, but overall most folks should stay dry on Saturday.
Below normal temps continue with highs a degree or two on either
side of 70. Temps trend milder on Saturday night with increased sky
cover, and will only bottom out in the 50s.
Zonal flow aloft remains over our area through Sunday and Monday,
with surface low pressure developing over the southern Plains ahead
of shortwave energy beginning to eject out. This will likely sharpen
the warm frontal boundary to our south, but will also likely create
some overrunning thanks to an uptick in low level jetting. As a
result, looking for increased chances of shower (and perhaps a few
elevated storms) on the stable side of the boundary. Pops will range
in the likely category across southern KY, tapering to scattered
coverage across our north. The same general setup applies for Monday
as the surface low approaches, and deeper moisture starts to pool
along the boundary ahead of it.
By Tuesday, the surface low looks to slide somewhere near or just
south of our CWA. Have been watching data over the past couple of
days to make sure we won't get a brief warm sector established
across our area. So far, things continue to look pretty stable so
will continue to downplay any severe threat. The bigger concern will
continue to be the potential for heavier rainfall totals adding up
by this time, especially around the Green River basin where multiple
waves are expected Sunday - Tuesday. Overall amounts look to be 1 to
2" for most, with locally higher amounts certainly possible. We'll
watch the Green River as it will already be running high, but
overall flooding concerns are expected to stay confined to nuisance
and localized issues as we can handle a good bit of rain this time
of year.
Wednesday - Thursday...
Not the highest confidence for the mid week portion of the forecast,
but there is a loosely consistent signal for some sort of closed low
once again across the eastern CONUS. This would keep us in an
occasionally showery and cooler than normal type of setup. Given the
past month or so, we should be used to it by now. We'll keep temps
in the 70s for this period until more confidence can be gained in
the overall pattern.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 634 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025
VFR conditions expected to prevail through this cycle with lighter
NW to WNW winds through today. The one exception to that will be for
an hour or two of fog this morning at LEX and HNB. Seeing vis bounce
around at these sites, but should see some quick improvement within
an hour or two. Still looks to be a scattered to broken stratocu
deck building in midday into the afternoon, with some scattered
upper sky cover also moving overhead later in the day. Winds go very
light out of the S or calm tonight.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BJS
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 23, 6:42 AM EDT ...Forecast Update... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202505231042-KLMK-FXUS63-AFDLMK)
---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!