CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 17, 1:20 PM EDT
878
FXUS61 KCLE 171720
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
120 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system centered over the region will move a cold
front east across the area today. High pressure will build south
across the area on Sunday, persisting through Tuesday. Another
low pressure will move east out of the Central U.S., impacting
the area midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A nearly vertically stacked low pressure system will continue
to wobble east-northeast across the northeastern Great Lakes
region into southern Ontario and Quebec today. This is allowing
a cold front to sweep eastward across our CWA. As of 12 PM EDT,
the surface cold front was located near Ashtabula and extended
south-southwestward to just north and west of Akron-Canton
Airport and Millersburg, respectively. The front will continue
moving eastward and is expected to exit the rest of our CWA
within the next two to three hours at most. Scattered multicell
showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the
front, amidst moderate to strong effective bulk shear and weak
diurnal destabilization of the warm/relatively-moist sector
boundary layer. Given the aforementioned vertical wind shear and
instability, some storms may produce strong straight-line
convective wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph. The potential for
severe convective weather remains very low due to expected weak
instability. Behind the cold front, isolated showers are
possible due to self-destructive sunshine (i.e. thermals
reaching their CCL's and releasing appreciable amounts of
surface-based CAPE) through this early evening as a shortwave
trough approaches from the western Great Lakes and notably
colder air aloft overspreads our region.
Another notable impact of the low pressure system and cold
front passage will be gusty winds across the area. A fairly-tight
MSLP gradient and diurnal convective mixing of the boundary
layer tapping into stronger flow aloft will permit southwesterly
surface wind gusts up to 20 to 30 mph ahead of the front and
westerly surface wind gusts up to 30 to 40 mph behind the cold
front, through this early evening. The gusty winds coupled with
cooling temperatures behind the front will result in a blustery
Saturday with highs only climbing into the 60's.
A few lingering light showers are possible tonight across NW PA
as a lingering surface trough persist. Not expecting much in
terms of coverage given the drier airmass pushing south with a
Canadian high pressure. By Sunday, high pressure will become
dominant, allowing for conditions to dry out across the entire
area. Winds should steadily weaken late Saturday night into
Sunday, with west-northwest winds of 10-15 mph, gusting up to 20
mph possible by Sunday afternoon. Overnight lows tonight will be
much cooler than recent nights with temperatures falling into
the low to mid 50s. Highs on Sunday will be a tad warmer,
climbing into the mid to upper 60s with the warmest temperatures
along and west of I71.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Finally will get out of the dominant troughing over the eastern CWA
with the eventual departure of the upper level low to the New
England coast. This will be replaced by weak ridging aloft while the
next low pressure system gets organized over the central plains
region. High pressure influences from a center well north of the
area over Hudson Bay in Canada will also find its way into the
southern Great Lakes with a dry forecast through Sunday night, but
this will serve to continue the cold northerly surface flow into
the region. Back to the central plains region low pressure system,
this will make eastward progress with a leading warm front towards
the Ohio Valley. Large swath of low/mid level isentropic ascent
ahead of the warm front brings POPs back into the fold for Tuesday
from the southwest, heading into a wetter period in the long term
portion of the forecast as this system moves into our area. Look for
temperatures to be around 10 degrees or so below normal in the short
term, a trend that will persist for a few days.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure system moves eastward into southern Ohio midweek
pushing moisture further north into the CWA for Tuesday night
onward. Upper level low deepens over Lake Erie on Thursday into
Thursday, and with the main forcing from the surface system now
further east, general surface troughing and cold air advection
showers will control the pattern heading into the end of the work
week. Thursday will be the coolest day with most locations not
getting out of the 50s for high temperatures. Temperatures will
slowly modify towards the weekend, but will keep carrying lower end
POPs Friday in the cold pool aloft.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Aloft, SW'erly to W'erly flow becomes W'erly to NW'erly during
the 00Z/Sun through 18Z/Sun period as a low wobbles E'ward from
the northeastern Great Lakes to southern QC and vicinity, and a
ridge builds slowly from the north-central United States. At the
surface, an E'ward-moving cold front will have exited our region
by 18Z/Sat. Behind the front, a trough should linger over the
Lake Erie region and Upper OH Valley as the ridge attempts to
build from the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest.
The above-mentioned weather pattern evolution will maintain a
fairly-tight MSLP gradient across our region. Accordingly,
W'erly surface winds around 15 to 20 knots, gusting up to 25 to
35 knots, are expected through ~00Z/Sun. Thereafter, W'erly to
WNW'erly surface winds around 10 to 15 knots, gusting up to 20
to 25 knots at times, are forecast through 18Z/Sun.
Widespread low-level clouds are expected to result in VFR to
MVFR ceilings in the 2kft to 5kft AGL range through the TAF
period. Periodic IFR ceilings are possible over far-NE OH and NW
PA Sun morning. Behind the cold front, primarily dry weather is
expected through 18Z/Sun. However, the combination of daytime
heating and much colder air farther aloft may allow a few rain
showers to impact northern OH and NW PA through ~00Z/Sun. In
addition, warming/moistening of a cool air mass as it crosses Lake
Erie and W'erly to WNW'erly upslope flow may allow isolated
rain showers to impact interior NW PA after ~09Z/Sun.
Outlook...Low ceilings and associated non-VFR possible over NE
OH and NW PA during the afternoon and most of the evening on
Sunday. Otherwise, scattered rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms with non-VFR should occur Tuesday through
Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
After a cold front passes west to east across Lake Erie this
morning, southwest winds 15-25kts become westerly 20-25kts and wave
heights becoming 3-6ft over most of the nearshore and open waters.
Westerly winds become northwesterly Sunday, easing to 10-15kts and
wave heights down to 1-3ft. Onshore winds and wave heights 1-3ft
continues through Monday, turning northeasterly Monday night through
Tuesday 10-20kts and wave heights increasing again to 2-4ft.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
LEZ142>145.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ146-147.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ148-149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04/Jaszka
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...26
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 17, 1:20 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202505171720-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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