The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 2 Enhanced Convective Risk at May 15, 17:20z for portions of PBZ
591
WUUS02 KWNS 151722
PTSDY2
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
VALID TIME 161200Z - 171200Z
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 2
... TORNADO ...
0.02 37087447 36847970 35548373 34848558 33708895 33069155
31649582 31469688 31689743 32069744 34019580 36819387
37509332 39249135 42238885 42528618 42048339 41067902
39777583 38167341
0.05 34589016 34909232 35639337 36259338 36939342 37349315
38799151 40008998 40738866 41048695 41088497 40698225
40148093 39638053 38358042 37788055 36978181 35398556
34628864 34589016
0.10 38298375 37448418 36848496 36408592 35869025 36009163
36419224 36699228 37269212 38469043 39448835 39708695
39808587 39818465 39278406 38798382 38298375
SIGN 39158402 38618377 38268376 37468425 36898491 36408592
36198781 35839059 36039163 36439221 36829220 37239209
38509028 39438828 39698714 39798580 39808468 39158402
&&
... HAIL ...
0.05 36597422 36547923 35928205 33678629 33118865 32509109
31729374 31179534 30659680 30609746 30759795 31049828
31349826 33519701 36749482 39109218 40369063 41069010
42518959 43928927 44898877 45588819 46008749 46028655
45628519 44688363 44198256 44068208 43848124 43547779
43387647 43367489 43067393 42427315 41587320 39977326
0.15 33648983 32279405 31639588 31449680 31659736 31979747
34119572 36979354 38609176 40078992 41408803 41728615
41598386 41298224 41028179 40198098 38908059 38308052
37868064 37058172 34918624 33648983
0.30 35679232 35859290 36309316 36709311 37149280 37879201
38479134 38959070 39219034 39728908 40078717 40128529
39538420 38648413 37528463 36928529 36588615 36058846
35649059 35679232
SIGN 36908596 33919179 32109461 31659587 31469676 31679733
31979747 34059576 37039348 38789154 40118983 40758866
41038678 41008446 40898378 40588308 40258299 38908374
36908596
&&
... WIND ...
0.05 35317451 35747760 35667956 35478125 35198190 34438382
33808577 33588646 33158842 32749018 32509111 31669396
30639680 30609744 30739791 31069828 31419824 33589697
36749484 39639152 40239077 41069011 42568957 43908929
44898877 45638814 45988751 46058651 45618523 44698365
44158250 44078210 43888139 43557781 43397640 43367483
43057392 42427313 41577316 40057330
0.15 36587482 36547937 35538367 35018533 34788586 33688892
31679566 31529638 31449688 31679740 32039745 33799596
35199495 36669378 37099347 38839151 40018997 41408803
41728615 41568350 41238015 41007794 40777602 40317477
39427337
0.30 36348270 35838420 35558622 35248846 35239062 35249181
35439237 35869289 36299315 36689312 37149279 38409142
39229031 39718916 40118698 40148471 39978303 39788157
39358047 38768007 38118015 37668061 37608071 36848177
36348270
0.45 38629053 38878989 39248853 39318801 39288650 39058545
38788501 38248473 37658481 37128515 36808561 36698616
36568679 36508777 36468832 36418957 36429011 36499144
36649177 36999215 37459190 37799160 38249108 38629053
SIGN 35658936 35689044 36179196 36739252 37489241 38459137
39299020 39708912 40118701 40378384 40278150 39628028
38558001 37638084 36848239 36128473 35668684 35648816
35658936
&&
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 2
... CATEGORICAL ...
MDT 37669173 38269103 38629053 38858996 39238855 39318803
39288645 39048544 38798502 38238474 37638482 37118516
36808563 36568681 36448845 36448872 36418963 36449069
36499147 36669179 37009215 37419192 37669173
ENH 40108697 40148468 39798160 39378049 38778008 38118014
37618066 36808182 36338273 35828418 35538630 35248844
35239058 35259179 35439237 35869291 36319316 36719311
37159279 37779213 38479135 39219035 39718917 40108697
SLGT 36587493 36557928 35008540 34778587 33708888 31629585
31449686 31669738 31999747 33839593 34959510 37029352
38719163 39559056 41438798 41718611 41278073 40987752
40777603 40267467 39417337
MRGL 35337457 35747766 35677956 35488118 34338409 33588641
32549099 31609414 30639681 30609746 30769798 31079830
31349826 33399708 36699487 38369304 39479176 40319068
41089010 42538959 43918929 44748887 45598818 45988755
46048656 45638526 44698366 44188255 43878138 43417667
43357492 43057392 42427313 41437321 40147329
TSTM 46346686 45066885 42867159 41767250 40897247 40007198
99999999 34557481 34837707 34837956 33568309 32518638
31509324 30259564 29699691 29549840 29789919 30459958
31089962 32039888 33099793 35929581 39479316 41519170
44539076 48898778 99999999 50031105 45230727 44480699
43570751 42990826 42510983 43181174 44071506 45141631
47111434 48191523 49791752 99999999 38532054 39562100
40432122 39812036 38911977 37411872 36801869 36531855
37391963 38532054
&&
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE
TBN 40 ENE VIH 10 SW STL ALN 20 SW MTO 15 SE MTO 15 NE BMG 55 W LUK
40 WSW LUK 15 NNW LEX 30 SSW LEX 60 W LOZ 45 ESE BWG 30 NNW BNA 45
SSE PAH 45 S PAH 30 NNW DYR 25 NNE ARG 30 SE UNO 10 SE UNO 25 NW UNO
25 SSE TBN 25 ESE TBN.
THERE IS A ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S
LAF 30 NW DAY 20 SE ZZV 35 WSW MGW 15 WSW EKN 25 NNE SSU 20 WSW SSU
40 NE TRI 20 WSW TRI 10 W TYS 45 SSE BNA 35 SE MKL 35 WNW MEM 35 SSW
BVX 40 ENE RUE 30 SSE HRO HRO 30 N HRO 35 E SGF TBN 30 NE VIH 25 NW
ALN 20 WSW DEC 20 S LAF.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 ENE
ECG DAN 10 WSW CHA 40 WSW CHA 25 WNW CBM 45 SE CRS 25 ESE ACT 10 WNW
ACT 30 NNW ACT 30 ESE DUA 30 W RKR 15 SSW SGF 30 ENE JEF 45 SE UIN
35 E MMO 10 E SBN YNG 20 ENE UNV 30 WNW ABE TTN 65 E ACY.
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E
HSE 15 ESE RWI 35 NNW SOP 20 SE HKY 50 WNW AHN 20 E BHM 60 E MLU 45
NE LFK 25 W CLL 25 NE AUS 35 NNW AUS 55 W TPL 50 WNW TPL 35 SW GYI
10 NW GMJ 35 SE SZL 45 SW UIN 35 NE UIN 35 SE MLI 30 WSW JVL 35 W
OSH 40 ESE AUW 15 S IMT 30 NW ESC 35 NE ESC 20 WNW PLN 20 NW OSC 35
NE BAX 80 E BAX 35 NW SYR 25 ENE UCA 20 NNW ALB 10 E PSF 20 NNW BDR
45 SE JFK.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE HUL 20 N BGR
25 S CON 15 SSE BDL 35 ENE ISP 80 SE ISP ...CONT... 65 SE HSE 15 S
EWN 30 SSW SOP 30 SSE AHN 15 N MGM 20 SSW IER 35 SSW UTS 60 N VCT
SAT 30 N HDO 10 ESE JCT 40 NNE JCT 15 NNE BWD 25 NNE MWL 20 SSE TUL
30 SE CDJ 25 S CID 40 ESE EAU 125 NNE CMX ...CONT... 115 NNE CTB 35
NNW SHR 20 S SHR 35 SE WRL 10 ESE RIW 15 ESE BPI 30 SE IDA 55 NW SUN
20 NNW MYL 20 NW MSO 40 N 3TH 130 NE OMK ...CONT... 40 SW TVL 65 W
RNO 60 ENE RBL 40 NW RNO 10 E TVL 20 W BIH 40 SSW BIH 60 S BIH 40 N
FAT 40 SW TVL.
Source: The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 2 Enhanced Convective Risk at May 15, 17:20z for portions of PBZ (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2025/day2otlk_20250515_1730.html)
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