MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 11, 2:20 PM CDT ...New Discussion, Marine...
258
FXUS64 KMOB 111920
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
220 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025
...New Discussion, Marine...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025
...Through Monday...
Scattered to locally numerous showers and storms continue into the
evening hours with the potential for small hail and gusty winds in
any of the stronger storms. As we head into tonight, our surface low
begins to gradually drift towards the northwest and most of the
precipitation over the area lifts out to the north. Some of the
morning and afternoon guidance hints at another round of isolated to
scattered showers and storms moving onshore late in the overnight
towards daybreak Monday. Limited instability owing to the
unfavorable diurnal timing should preclude any stronger storms from
developing.
As we head into Monday, our overall environment stays relatively
similar, with perhaps more of the focus for coverage of showers and
storms shifting into interior counties of southeastern Mississippi
into interior southwestern Alabama. More isolated coverage can be
expected closer to the coast. Overall shear values remain similar,
but instability appears to be a bit more muted overall with weaker
lapse rates and the low pulling away. Can't rule out a stronger wind
gust or two in any of the strongest storms but not anticipating much
more than that for Monday. Temperatures start the morning in the
lower to middle 60's, only warming into the upper 70's to near 80,
warmest east of the I-65 corridor. A High risk of rip currents
continues through Monday night. MM/25
Tuesday Through Saturday...
The meandering upper low will gradually begin to lift out of the
region Monday night into Tuesday, which will signal the end to this
seemingly long stretch of days with unsettled weather. Winds aloft
turn northwesterly by mid-afternoon on Tuesday and drier air will
filter into the region from west to east. Best chances for lingering
showers and storms on Tuesday will be across our northeastern
counties, generally across south-central Alabama during peak heating
in the afternoon hours. The rest of the work week will generally
feature warmer temperatures as we begin to dry out. Ridging aloft
begins to build to our west on Wednesday with some subtle shortwaves
moving overhead as they dive down the eastern periphery of the
ridge. While there won't be a ton of moisture left in the
northwesterly flow aloft, we can't entirely rule out isolated
showers on Wednesday, especially in the afternoon hours. Ridging
moves into the region on Thursday and Friday, which effectively
shuts off our rain chances and allows the heat to start cranking.
Hottest day looks to be Friday with temperatures topping out in the
low to mid 90s inland with mid to upper 80s at the beaches.
Beach Forecast - The risk for rip currents remains MODERATE Tuesday
through Thursday for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.
Note that the rip current MOS probabilities are starting to trend
slightly higher in the Wednesday night into Thursday morning
timeframe at a few of the beaches. The MOS probabilities continue to
indicate a MODERATE risk through much of the afternoon on Friday
before dropping to a LOW risk by Saturday morning. 07/mb
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025
VFR flight category prevails generally west of the I-65 corridor
and southward into the western half of the Florida panhandle while
MVFR to IFR ceilings linger in the east. Expect this to remain the
case through tonight, perhaps gradually improving for eastern
portions of the area as showers and storms wane. Expect reductions
in ceiling and visibility underneath showers and storms today and
again tomorrow. Winds remain generally out of the south at 5 to
10 knots during the day with light and variable winds overnight.
MM/25
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025
Southerly light to moderate winds gradually turn southwesterly
tonight into Monday. Light to at times moderate southwesterly flow
generally prevails through the remainder of the week. MM/25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 62 77 61 83 67 85 69 88 / 30 50 10 20 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 67 79 66 81 72 82 74 85 / 50 50 20 20 10 0 0 0
Destin 69 79 69 82 72 83 75 85 / 40 50 30 20 10 0 0 0
Evergreen 63 81 58 83 63 89 66 92 / 50 70 10 30 10 0 0 0
Waynesboro 60 77 58 82 63 88 65 93 / 40 60 10 20 0 0 0 0
Camden 63 78 58 79 63 87 66 92 / 60 70 10 40 10 0 0 0
Crestview 63 82 60 83 63 87 67 89 / 40 60 20 30 10 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 11, 2:20 PM CDT ...New Discussion, Marine... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202505111920-KMOB-FXUS64-AFDMOB)
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