PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 11, 11:51 AM EDT
260
FXUS61 KPBZ 111551
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1151 AM EDT Sun May 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A dry and warm Mother's Day is on tap with sunshine through high
cloudiness and temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Slow
moving low pressure headed up the Ohio River Valley will bring
periods of showers and thunderstorms Monday through Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and warm Mother's Day with readings 5 to 10 degrees above
normal
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Not much to change for the mid-late morning update with the
forecast remaining on track. A few locations are seeing a
slightly faster uptick in temperature but otherwise, still think
upper 70's to lower 80s are appropriate. Probabilities of
exceeding 80 degrees are greatest from about I-70 southward.
Previous...
Upper low expected to be slow moving over Louisiana,
with 500 mb ridge building and heights rising 40 meters over
the Upper Ohio River Valley. Surface high of about 1030 mb
builds into New York State, with light northeast flow over
forecast area. 850 mb temperatures expected to bump up a tad to
+12C this afternoon, resulting in highs approaching 80F in the
central and southern zones. Despite thin high clouds, will take
same approach as yesterday by going with 10th percentile NBM dew
points and going roughly halfway between NBM mean and 90th
percentile MaxT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Unsettled weather Monday night onward
- Warm Monday then temperatures return to normal
----------------------------------------------------------------
Deep trough moving onto West Coast Monday should give Louisiana
low the boot. Upper low moves into Mississippi Monday afternoon,
allowing upper flow to turn to due south and 500 mb height
falls of 30 to 40 meters to spread up the Appalachians.
Moisture will increase Monday and allow sufficient
destabilization over south half to support diurnal showers and
thunderstorms. It will be cooler due to clouds and showers south
of I-70, with the warmest and likely driest area being up along
I-80.
Upper low continues slow northeast drift Tuesday and crosses
Middle Tennessee into eastern Kentucky. The low opens up into a
trough oriented NW to SE and reaches the Ohio area on Wednesday.
Showers and thunderstorms, most numerous in the afternoon and
early evenings. Because there will be deep south to southeast
flow, the heaviest rains should be east of the ridges, and there
is a marginal risk for heavy rainfall down in the Tucker County
WV area.
72 hour PQPF 25th percentiles are 0.10-0.20" in the NW half,
with 0.25-0.75" in the SE half of forecast area. 75th percentile
is 0.50-0.75" NW and 1.00-2.00" over the ridges with 2.00-2.50"
over eastern Tucker County WV.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Ridging Thursday will reduce the thunderstorm chances
- Thursday night into Friday has the potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms
- Temperatures 15-20F above normal especially Thursday/Friday
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Upper Trough drifts east on Thursday with a ridge building into
the Ohio Valley. The ridging builds ahead of deep low over the
Upper Mississippi River Valley. Heights fall 40 to 70 meters
Thursday night over the lower Ohio River Valley, and NBM SBCAPE
values Thursday evening area very unstable with values around
3,000 j/kg over southern IL/IN.
Because of upper ridging expect less coverage of diurnal showers
and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. However, strong warm
advection spreads up the Ohio River late Thursday night and
Friday morning, likely bringing a round of thunderstorms to the
area that will be strong to severe. Models are in relatively
good agreement that this activity moves through Friday morning
and that primary severe threat with diurnal heating is south and
east of forecast area. However, as usual, timing of features and
details of convective evolution this far out always provide a
good deal of uncertainty.
SPC GEFS Post-Processing via CSU MLP has decent probability of
severe Thursday and especially Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions continue today with surface high pressure anchored
north of us. Winds are expected to be light throughout the TAF
period. SCT or greater cirrus are possible, most likely across
northern WV.
Outlook...
The approach of a surface warm front associated with a cutoff
upper low will increase MVFR potential (40-60% probability)
Monday night into Tuesday. Onset of initial precipitation may be
earlier within VFR conditions and be more of a light
rain/sprinkle intensity.
More widespread showers and thunderstorms are possible during
the afternoon/evening hours of Tuesday and Wednesday as low
pressure lingers over the Ohio Valley. A more active weather
pattern is then favored into next weekend and will allow for
periodic thunderstorm chances.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Craven
NEAR TERM...34
SHORT TERM...Craven
LONG TERM...Craven
AVIATION...Rackley/AK
Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 11, 11:51 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202505111551-KPBZ-FXUS61-AFDPBZ)
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