PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 10, 9:42 PM EDT
173
FXUS61 KPBZ 110142
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
942 PM EDT Sat May 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A sun filled Mother's Day is in store with above average
temperatures. Daytime highs will be near normal most of next week,
however the weather pattern will be unsettled. A slow moving low
pressure system will spread showers and perhaps a rumble or two of
thunder Monday night through Thursday. No wash outs, but keep the
umbrella handy.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- No complaint Mother's day forecast
- Above average temperatures
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Quiet and a touch warmer tonight with respect to overnight low
temperatures. Values will range from the lower 40s to near 50 in
urban areas and parts of northern West Virginia. Much like this
morning, still expect a wide spread in values and perhaps a few
pockets of upper 30s in the deeper hollows and normal cold spots. So
if you reside in one of those areas, you may want to consider
bringing in those sensitive plants given areal coverage negates a
frost advisory.
On Sunday, expect abundant sunshine and above normal temperatures.
Mainly areas south of I-70 in West Virginia and eastern Ohio
will have 60%-80% chance of hitting at least 80F or higher. With
a dry column in place and sunny skies, dewpoints are expected
to be low, closer to the 10th-25th percentile for dewpoints in
the afternoon. Any cirrus clouds moving north from the upper low
along the Gulf coast won't be thick enough to hide the sun. In
fact as it tries to push north, it will dissipate due to the dry
air.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Unsettled weather Monday night onward
- Warm Monday then temperatures return to normal
- No severe weather expected through Friday midday
----------------------------------------------------------------
Clouds increase ahead of the mid level cyclone as it drifts north
from the Gulf coast states Sunday night into Monday. With a
southeast wind coupled with dry low levels, this will help delay any
measurable precipitation in our area perhaps until Monday evening.
Historically with this type of track, we see QPF >0.01" happen in
our eastern Ohio counties first with it slowly spreading into the
lowlands adjacent to the mountains several hours later. Latest run
of the NBM and 12Z NCEP suite has delayed onset time.
By 12Z Tuesday, not expecting a lot of rainfall areawide with less
than two tenths of an inch area wide save for south of the Mason-
Dixon line and I70 in Ohio, where upwards of a quarter of an inch or
so can be expected. Given all of the clouds, thermodynamic
instability is on the low side which reflects in the prob thunder
fields from the NBM. Areas north US 422, there is less than a 20%
chance, while the 12 hour max values south of US 422 are below 30%.
As the center of the circulation continues its northward journey
expect showers off and on Tuesday. It won't be a washout by any
means, and it is quite possible that some communities may miss the
showers that day, but overall likely numbers />55%/ remain in the
forecast for PoPs.
Even though there won't be a lot of sunshine temperatures will still
be above normal with widespread 70s and overnight lows staying in
the 50s. Mean values from the NBM looked good and were accepted.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Daily chance of precipitation
- Friday has the potential for strong storms
- Above normal temperatures
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Cluster analysis showers remarkable agreement in the extended, which
is surprising given high amplitude of the long wave pattern. The
area where clusters are split is the low out of the northwest and
timing issues when it moves into the plains days 5-7. By the end of
the forecast, there is medium to above average confidence in the mid
level height field over the eastern 2/3rds of the country.
Clouds > Sunshine is the math expression for this upcoming week as
the upper level low will funnel in clouds and showers. H5 cyclone
weakens and becomes an open wave by Thursday. Nonetheless, still
expected showers and perhaps a thunderstorm every day Tuesday -
Thursday. The best chance of a thunderstorm and thus higher rain
rates is Wednesday afternoon and evening when the trough axis
passes. The severe potential remains low and is supported by the
prob of severe parameters. SBCAPES remain less than 0.7 kjkg-1 and
mean CWASP values no higher than 55 during this time frame.
The column warms and will be increasing humid each day as PWATs
climb above an inch with values reaching their peak this seven day
forecast window on Friday when they surpass 1.5". Surface dewpoints
in the 60s will be common with not much difference in the 25-75th
values /only a 3-5F spread/.
In wake of a transitory mid level anticyclone and a warm front
Friday. There is a potential for strong to possibly severe storms
Friday night into Saturday if the timing holds. SPC has not
outlooked the region in a 15% prob yet, but the CSU machine learning
and CIPS spreads a 15-29% prob over much of the Ohio valley ahead of
a mid level trough. This is something we will be monitoring over
the coming days and ramp up messaging as needed. The good news is
this system will have decent forward speed, so flooding does not
appear to be a concern at this juncture.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High confidence in VFR through the TAF period under the
influence of high pressure. A weak, dry boundary will reorient
surface wind out of the N to NE Sunday but remaining light.
Fluctuations in high level moisture advection is expected to
create periods of scattered to overcast cirrus favoring northern
WV.
Outlook...
The approach of a surface warm front associated with a cutoff
upper low will increase MVFR potential (40-60% probability at
this time) Monday night into Tuesday. Onset of initial
precipitation may be earlier within VFR conditions and be more
of a light rain/sprinkle intensity.
Diurnal heating may foster more widespread afternoon to evening
showers and thunderstorms Tuesday/Wednesday as the low pressure
system lingers in the Ohio River Valley. A more active weather
pattern is favored into next weekend and allow for periodic
thunderstorm chances.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...McMullen
NEAR TERM...McMullen/Lupo
SHORT TERM...McMullen
LONG TERM...McMullen
AVIATION...Frazier
Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 10, 9:42 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202505110142-KPBZ-FXUS61-AFDPBZ)
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