ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 10, 7:59 PM EDT
625
FXUS61 KILN 102359
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
759 PM EDT Sat May 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in place across the region through the
weekend, providing for dry and seasonable temperatures. An upper
level low pressure system will lift north into the Ohio Valley
through mid week, bringing occasional chances for showers and
thunderstorms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mid level ridge will remain in place across the region tonight.
However, we will continue to see some high level clouds spread up
from the south in association with the upper level low over the
lower Mississippi Valley. Temperatures will not be as cool as last
night with overnight lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level low over the lower Mississippi Valley will begin to
lift slowly north toward the lower Ohio Valley Sunday into Sunday
night. This will lead to a gradual increase in clouds from the south
with a few showers possibly sneaking into our far south by late
Sunday night. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid to upper 70s with
lows Sunday night mostly in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
H5 low pressure over LA/MS on Mon will track northeast and near
southern CWA Tues evening. Overnight, the low will weaken into an
open wave and move to the ne on Wed. A ridge will build behind it
through Thurs and break down relatively quickly in the evening with
zonal wsw flow aloft through the remainder of the forecast.
Showers and some thunderstorms will overspread the region from the
south on Monday ahead of the approaching upper low and continue
through Tuesday. Activity will peak in the late day/early evening
and taper off at night through this time. The last of the precip
associated with the passage of this upper low will occur on
Wednesday and be relatively weak.
An overly wet forecast has been initialized from forecast builder
beyond this time. Longer periods of no precip are being overridden
by chance pops for the latter half of the forecast.
Temperatures in the low 70s on Monday will rise to the mid 80s by
Thurs and Fri and settle back to around 80 on Saturday. Overnight
lows will be near 60 through Wed night, peak in the upper 60s
Thursday night and drop back down to the low-mid 60s for Fri night.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid and upper level ridge to continue to act as a block with large
low centered over the Gulf states. Expect mainly just some high
clouds to spill into the area from the south.
Light winds may lead to some patchy fog again late tonight so will
continue to include a few hours of MVFR to ocnl IFR vsby
restrictions at KLUK. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times Monday afternoon into
Wednesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...AR
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 10, 7:59 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202505102359-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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