PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 9, 8:08 PM EDT
875
FXUS61 KPBZ 100008
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
808 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Building high pressure will keep the region dry through the
weekend. After a chilly start with the potential for frost
tomorrow morning, a warming trend is expected into next week.
Rain chances return by the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Frost Advisory in effect from 2am-8am
- Dry conditions and seasonal temperatures expected Saturday
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Weak northwest flow and high pressure inching up the Ohio River
Valley will finish eroding lingering stratocu and allow for
clear skies overnight. The combination of clear skies, light
wind, and lingering cold airmass (with low dewpoints) should
result in area temperature around 10 degrees below the daily
average and pose a risk for frost formation.
An areawide Frost Advisory highlighting this potential impact
remains in effect, though the effects of heating within urban
areas likely will mute frost development. Additionally, hi-res
modeling suggests a potential for enough of a surface pressure
gradient to maintain some BL mixing for areas east of I-77 in
Ohio that could limit the degree of cooling and frost formation.
This could also cause stark differences in valley versus
ridgetop temperature, which the latest forecast attempts to
capture.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Quiet conditions with moderating temperatures Sunday
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Dry conditions are expected as we remain in a fold-over ridge, wedged
between the cutoff low over the gulf states and troughing over Nova
Scotia/Newfoundland. Subsidence will generally keep skies mostly
clear and warming aloft will support low temperatures closer to
average as well, which will limit additional frost concerns.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Warming trend continues through next week.
- Next rain chances return Tuesday
- Potential for strong to severe thunderstorm Thursday/Friday
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The aforementioned cutoff low will begin to be absorbed back
into the upper flow Monday with southerly flow and moisture
returning to the region. At this juncture, ensemble guidance
does want to start introducing the chance for showers and
possible thunderstorms by Monday afternoon but this will be
contingent on how quickly the low levels saturate. By Tuesday
afternoon, confidence increases in the generation of showers and
storms, but some discrepancies remain in amount of instability
and shear present. Showers and thunderstorms are again possible
on Wednesday as the trough passes across the upper Ohio valley.
A brief reprieve is expected Wednesday night as the upper low
shifts off to the east.
The break is short lived however as chances for showers and
thunderstorms return for Thursday and Friday. As noted
previously, joint probabilities of effective shear >=30kts and
MUCAPE >= 500J/kg exceed 30% in Ohio on Thursday and 50% across
much of the region on Friday, which suggests the potential for
strong/severe storms given the timing and lift from a cold front
tied to low pressure over the northern Great Lakes.
Cluster analysis flattens the ridge by the end of the period but
even so, temperatures will remain above average through the
period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Clear skies tonight and light winds open the door for the
chance of fog formation, especially in the river valleys. ZZV
and MGW seem to have the greatest chance for fog development,
however, there is less than 10% probability of occurrence which
is why it is not included in the TAFs. Otherwise, VFR continues
Saturday under largely clear skies with light to moderate winds.
Outlook... High pressure will continue VFR through early Monday
night. Restrictions are likely to return Tuesday/Wednesday with an
upper level trough moving into the region.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for WVZ001>004-
012-021-509>514.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...34
NEAR TERM...Frazier
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM...34
AVIATION...Lupo/AK
Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 9, 8:08 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202505100008-KPBZ-FXUS61-AFDPBZ)
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