PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 7, 5:36 AM EDT
515
FXUS61 KPBZ 070936
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
536 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and seasonable weather returns today. Cold frontal passage
on Thursday will bring afternoon and evening rain chances with
cooler temperatures on Friday. A dry weather pattern with
warming temperature is likely this weekend into early next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Lingering showers possible across the ridges early this
morning.
- Dry weather for most with seasonable temperatures.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Light rain continues to slowly exit the region this morning,
still lingering across portions of the PA/WV ridges as the
upper low lifts farther northeast. Rain is expected to end
before dawn, though remaining low-level moisture under an
inversion will keep cloud cover through morning. Temperatures
remain fairly stable, with above- average lows in the upper 40s
and lower 50s.
Building surface high pressure today and generally drier flow
should keep the area dry today, with gradually decreasing
clouds. Afternoon high temperatures should end up close to the
seasonal average. Temperatures fall back into the 40s and 50s
tonight under partly cloudy skies.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Cold front returns showers for Thursday afternoon/evening.
- Drier weather returns Friday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Troughing will begin to dig south towards the Upper Ohio Valley
on Thursday, prompting a weak uptick in moisture ahead of a
trailing cold front. Frontogenetic lift, along with the
positively-tilted upper trough, should provide enough forcing
for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon and evening. Ensembles continue to favor roughly the
southeastern 2/3rds of the forecast area for ideal timing of
heating, frontal timing, and upper jet placement for convection.
However, weak shear and meager instability will keep severe
potential minimal.
Building broad surface high pressure will bring an end to rain
Thursday night. The trough is then expected to deepen and
slowly traverse NY State on Friday, keeping most rain east of
our area and minimizing cloud cover.
Temperatures will initially climb into the upper 60s/lower 70s
ahead of the cold front on Thursday, dropping back just below
normal into the 40s Thursday night. Cooler northerly flow will
keep temperatures about 5 degrees lower on Friday, though
clearing skies will bring plentiful sunshine. Below-normal
temperatures continue Friday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and warmer for the weekend into early next week.
- Rain chances return by mid-week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Ensembles continue to indicate the trough will meander over New
England late Friday before quickly exiting offshore. Meanwhile,
southern stream troughing will cross out of the Plains and into
the Lower Mississippi Valley. This feature is expected to remain
over the Gulf Coast through early next week before lifting
northwards. This should keep our region dry through the weekend,
with rain chances returning Tuesday/Wednesday as the low lifts
northwards. Rising heights and continued surface high pressure
will bring a warming trend into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cig restrictions should persist into the morning as an upper
low fills and transitions northeast. VFR conditions should be in
place by midday. Winds will shift to the west during the
afternoon with intermittent gusts up to around 20kts.
Outlook...
Restriction potential increases again on Thursday as
an upper trough approaches the region.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Rackley
NEAR TERM...Rackley
SHORT TERM...Rackley
LONG TERM...Rackley/Frazier
AVIATION...88
Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 7, 5:36 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202505070936-KPBZ-FXUS61-AFDPBZ)
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