ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 6, 7:49 PM EDT
182
FXUS61 KILN 062349
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
749 PM EDT Tue May 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
The cutoff low that has been driving the cloudy, cool, and showery
conditions finally moves east for Wednesday giving way to warmer,
drier conditions. After a brief cool down behind a cold front on
Thursday and Friday, mild and dry conditions are forecast for the
end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Showers will continue to diminish in central Ohio this evening. Most
of the cloud shield will diminish as well but perhaps not until
after midnight. However, there may still be clouds across northern
Ohio that may linger across far northern counties. Forecast lows
drop into the lower 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The Ohio Valley will be between weather systems on Wednesday. With
almost no pressure gradient across the region, light northerly winds
could become calm or variable at times. Forecast highs reach into
the lower to middle 70s under a mix of sun and clouds.
Quiet conditions continue Wednesday night. Fairly calm wind, mostly
to partly cloudy skies, with near average temperatures are in the
forecast. Toward the last part of the night, a cold front starts to
sink in from the north which might support low end rain chances
especially north of I-70. Forecast lows drop into the lower to
middle 50s for most locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A mid level trough axis and will pivot down through the Ohio Valley
on Thursday, helping to push a lingering surface boundary south of
our area through Thursday night. Some weak instability will develop
along and ahead of the boundary through Thursday afternoon,
resulting in a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms, mainly
across southern portions of our area. Some cooler air will also
filter down into the region through the day, with highs on Thursday
ranging from the lower 60s north to the lower 70s in the far south.
Surface high pressure will begin to build east toward our area on
Friday, leading to dry but continued cool conditions, with afternoon
highs in the mid to upper 60s. The high will then build into the
Great Lakes region through the weekend, bringing a warming trend,
with highs into the 70s for Saturday and Sunday.
An upper level low pressure system will lift northeast from the lower
Mississippi Valley toward the Ohio Valley Monday into Tuesday. This
will lead to an increasing chance of diurnally enhanced showers and
thunderstorms through the end of the long term period. Highs on
Monday and Tuesday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR to start the period with clouds decreasing through around 06Z.
It appears that an MVFR deck across northern Ohio may build back
south and affect the Columbus terminals after 09Z, but confidence in
this occurring is low to medium. This lower level moisture will lift
after 12Z allowing the flight category to improve. In addition,
there could be some visibility restrictions at KLUK after 09Z.
Scattered to broken cumulus will develop during the latter part of
the period. Winds will diminish early and then remain light through
the rest of the forecast, generally westerly but then veering north
late.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Thursday. Thunderstorms are
possible Thursday afternoon.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 6, 7:49 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202505062349-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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