LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 6, 6:38 AM EDT
689
FXUS63 KLMK 061038
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
638 AM EDT Tue May 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Isolated to patchy dense fog this morning.
* Dry weather for today and tomorrow with temperatures warming back
into the 70s.
* Cold front will bring another chance of showers and embedded
thunderstorms on Thursday.
* Warmer and drier weather possible for the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Tue May 6 2025
Closed upper low currently over southern OH/northern KY and
associated sfc low over over Lake Erie this morning will slowly lift
into the northeastern US today into Wednesday. Current nighttime
microphysics satellite imagery shows a large area of the CWA under
low stratus as well as where we've had some clearing there has been
the development of isolated dense fog. After collaborating with NWS
PAH/IND, given the higher cloud cover over most of our CWA, will
likely go with a SPS for dense fog but may issue a Dense Fog
Advisory if it becomes more widespread. The low clouds will linger
into the morning just after sunrise but they will start to mix out
and diminish by mid/late morning. Could see partly if not mostly
sunny skies later in the day.Winds will be light and see
temperatures warm into the low 70s with a few upper 60s where clouds
linger the longest.
Tonight into tomorrow upper ridging will start to build in behind
the departing closed low. Across the Four Corners region and the
Desert Southwest, a closed low will slowly start to work east-
northeast and over the Central Plains by Wednesday evening. Overall
our weather will remain quiet during this time but as the second
upper low approaches the Ohio Valley, clouds will start to increase
and we could see a 20-30 percent chance of showers for our far
southern counties during the day on Wednesday. Lows will be in the
upper 40s/low 50s tonight and then warm into the mid 70s with the
exception of low 70s across the south central KY where clouds will
arrive early and be around for a large portion of the day.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Tue May 6 2025
===== Wednesday Night - Thursday Night =====
Wednesday night into Thursday, an upper trough working through the
Great Lakes will absorb the aforementioned closed low coming out of
the central plains on Wednesday as it works east-southeastward. At
the sfc, a cold front will push into the Ohio Valley from the north
during the day Thursday, bringing with it increased shower and
thunderstorm chances. As it was mentioned in the previous
discussion, model soundings still suggest some instability available
in the afternoon. Shear looks to be weak, so any convection that
does develop will be weak and unorganized. QPF on Thursday is rather
light, so not expecting a washout for the day. Isolated to scattered
showers in the morning, with scattered showers and isolated garden
variety storms in the afternoon. Temperatures Thursday will warm
into the mid/low 70s.
===== Friday - Monday =====
Upper trough axis along with the associated cold front will push
south of the CWA Friday morning. Forecast for the end of the week is
trending drier with just an isolated chance of showers across the
KY/TN border during the day on Friday. Cooler air will filter in
behind the cold front and upper trough with high struggling to warm
into the 70s during the day.
By the weekend, weather looks mainly dry and gradually warming.
Expect partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 70s on
Saturday and into the upper 70s by Sunday. The only thing to monitor
will be the potential of another closed low forming for the end of
the weekend into early next week. The 00z GFS wants to form this
closed low earlier and into the TN/OH Valley on Sunday while the
EURO holds off until Monday. For now, NBM seems to be siding with
the EURO so that is the trend we are taking with our forecast for
now.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM EDT Tue May 6 2025
Areas of low stratus and even pockets of dense fog are around the
Ohio Valley this morning. This is making for a rather challenging
forecast this morning as many of our terminal sites bounce between
flight categories, mainly VFR/MVFR with the exception of HNB which
has been at IFR/LIFR for most of the overnight. As the upper low
that has been responsible for the clouds continues to lift to the
northeast, clouds will mix and start to clear out by late morning to
around midday. The rest of the forecast will feature VFR conditions.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 6, 6:38 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202505061038-KLMK-FXUS63-AFDLMK)
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