JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 5, 5:14 PM EDT
377
FXUS63 KJKL 052114
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
514 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The periodic potential for showers and thunderstorms continues
through the next week.
- Near normal to below normal temperatures will envelop eastern
Kentucky through most of the next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 231 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
Current surface analysis across the CONUS shows an occluding surface
low centered over western Kentucky and slowly tracking to the
northeast. Another surface feature is developing in the Dakotas on
the tail end of a front that's moving across central Canada and a
third feature is moving off the southern Rocky Mountain into the
High Plains of eastern New Mexico and western Texas. Locally, in
eastern Kentucky, bands of showers associated with the occluding low
are spinning around the center of the low from southeast to
northwest. Widespread cloud cover has and will continue to limit
incoming solar radiation and as a result, temperatures will slowly
climb to a high in upper-50s to a few lower-60s.
As the upper-level closed circulation continues to meander to the
northeast, the associated surface low will track northeast with it
but through the remainder of the day into the overnight, showers
with a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible.
Since there are pockets of a couple hundred Joules of SBCAPE and
MLCAPE across the CWA; thunderstorm chances will exist but
confidence on where they develop is rather low. Also, severe
thunderstorms aren't expected but due to extremely low freezing
levels; instances of hail/graupel will exist. Once instability is
exhausted, showers will taper off for the overnight into Tuesday
morning.
Tuesday brings the possibility for another round of weak showers and
thunderstorms for the far northeastern portions of the CWA before
the surface low and closed circulation moves far enough away from
the CWA and lift is no longer supportive of shower and storm
development. Behind the departing surface low, surface high pressure
will build back into the area and favor increasing temperatures for
Tuesday afternoon.
Overall, the forecast period is progged start as a wet and stormy
period but will finish on the dry side as surface high pressure
returns. Temperatures are forecast to range from the upper-50s to
low-60s today with overnight lows only falling to the mid-40s. Highs
for Tuesday are expected to be slightly warmer with values in the
mid to upper-60s with overnight lows for Tuesday night in the mid to
upper-40s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 514 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
Weak ridging aloft will pass over the region from west to east on
Wednesday. A weak shortwave trough riding through the ridge to our
south will bring precip there, but models are not taking it as far
north as KY, and we should finally have a dry day. Meanwhile, an
upper trough will be moving southeast over the Great Lakes, headed
for the eastern CONUS. It will support a cold front which is now
expected to drop south through KY on Thursday and Thursday
evening. Moisture recovery will be limited ahead of the front,
with dew points likely not rising above the 50s, but this should
be enough to give rise to instability to fuel showers and
possibly thunderstorms with the advancement of the upper trough
and its associated geopotential height falls and colder air aloft.
After this point, more uncertainty comes into the forecast. The
latest operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF have come into better
agreement with a good push of cooler and drier air behind the cold
front, but longstanding run to run continuity is still lacking.
The latest runs of those models are basically dry for our area
from late Friday through Monday, but the NBM still has precip.
Have cut back on the POP of the NBM based on the latest runs, but
have not removed precip entirely.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
A combination of VFR and MVFR conditions are prevailing across all
TAF sites with this issuance. As a line of showers and scattered
thunderstorms develop and move across terminals will continue to
fluctuate between MVFR and VFR. As an upper-level circulation and
accompanying surface low move to the northeast, showers and storms
will begin to dissipate over the next few hours and CIGS will
begin to improve to VFR. However, a secondary lowering of CIGS is
expected overnight, mainly after 08Z with light fog development.
Toward the end of the TAF window, closer to 12Z/Tuesday, CIGS are
forecast to improve back to VFR and remain VFR for the rest of
the period. Lastly, winds are expected to be light and variable
through the entirety of the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...VORST
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 5, 5:14 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202505052114-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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