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Emergency Information => Weather Info => Topic started by: ThreatWebInternal on May 06, 2025, 10:09:33 AM

Title: [Alert]The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Slight Convective Risk at May 5, 12:53z for portions of PBZ
Post by: ThreatWebInternal on May 06, 2025, 10:09:33 AM
The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Slight Convective Risk at May 5, 12:53z for portions of PBZ

846 
WUUS01 KWNS 051254
PTSDY1

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT MON MAY 05 2025

VALID TIME 051300Z - 061200Z

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... TORNADO ...

0.02   24767984 25528084 26728141 27968161 28898162 29748132
       30108048
0.02   29290251 30800356 31620409 32150429 32980425 33820387
       34250333 34220200 33509981 32639833 30929610 30339570
       29659571 29009609 28679668 28649729 28869802 29349920
       29460013 29290061 29000096
0.05   30720314 31240348 31900374 32350376 32730364 33000355
       33170334 33320276 33320225 33200185 32980146 32660106
       32010065 31390064 30730100 30470162 30510230 30720314
&&

... HAIL ...

0.05   24777984 25518083 26728140 27978164 28928161 29748132
       30088052
0.05   34017676 34037738 34237809 34507885 34717912 35227930
       35817914 36437915 37287976 37708004 37968053 37618127
       37788183 38328245 38978264 39848274 41058272 42078209
       42508201 99999999 43137964 42947891 42427785 41837706
       41127631 40507582 39827562 38507534 37407467
0.05   28830401 30630428 31390455 32410500 32940531 33540555
       34100568 34850559 35780528 36560504 37220446 37410383
       37340306 36880209 36270121 35579974 34829864 34289795
       33699765 32869732 31529647 30339570 29659568 29129590
       28789635 28659722 28599820 28189929 27500021
0.15   29080258 29550293 31630405 32690450 33560447 34150404
       34370314 34290171 34180134 33950072 33700020 33509981
       32889952 30849958 29900006 28890097
0.15   39068044 38628144 38988220 40578210 41598080 41688032
       41217964 40167970 39378011 39068044
0.15   35687661 35227721 35247791 35797810 36577803 37327840
       38027820 38947823 39857845 40227794 39477704 37897654
       36917622 36287630 35687661
0.30   30950310 31240339 31800366 32360378 32750375 33200351
       33450277 33440235 33000150 32660111 31880082 31580093
       31220107 30910168 30820285 30950310
SIGN   29860282 30780354 31620403 32420442 32930450 33500453
       34150400 34360310 34340257 34290169 34170132 33970111
       33800093 33040017 31349988 29450070 29230079 29160088
       29670149 29680234 29860282
&&

... WIND ...

0.05   24707976 25508083 26728140 28018162 28868162 29298149
       29728131 29938088 30078052
0.05   34027671 34027741 34517887 34697912 35247929 35797914
       36417915 37237975 37708000 37958054 37878136 37938195
       38348248 38938263 39858274 41028274 41368251 42108208
       42508201 99999999 43127967 42947891 42447790 42017729
       41237641 40527583 39877563 38487534 37407467
0.05   28810399 30670429 31570461 32380498 32910530 33560556
       34130569 34880559 35600534 36500506 37210448 37390384
       37340309 36890208 36270120 35780012 35529963 34269793
       33459755 32889733 31259627 30329568 29699567 29099609
       28899676 28829730 28599823 28189930 27500024
0.05   45080218 44340300 44320343 44680405 45990335 47070166
       47180085 46810049 46070115 45080218
0.15   29030255 29550292 31620404 32430440 32650448 33510451
       34160399 34380314 34330264 34290174 34160131 33950072
       33499977 32749877 31109790 30549784 29979832 29599936
       28650087
0.15   36707628 36187663 36327765 37437862 38077877 39247860
       39417957 39118031 38898147 39218202 40618216 41148180
       41898078 42177985 41977920 41127867 40327809 39327692
       38767669 37617657 36707628
SIGN   32290331 32720262 32400098 31710091 31470121 31150190
       31140280 31550337 32290331
&&

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... CATEGORICAL ...

ENH    32750375 33200351 33450277 33440235 33000150 32660111
       31880082 31220107 30910168 30820285 30950310 31240339
       31800366 32360378 32750375
SLGT   40618216 41148180 41908073 42197990 41977920 40327809
       40207795 39797740 39327692 38767669 38177663 36917622
       36287630 35687661 35227721 35247791 35797810 36577803
       36997824 37437862 38077877 39247860 39417957 38628144
       38988220 40618216
SLGT   29030255 29550293 31630405 32690450 33510451 34150404
       34380314 34290171 33950072 33499977 32749877 31109790
       30549784 29979832 29599936 28650087
MRGL   24777985 25508083 26728141 27978164 28898162 29748132
       29928090
MRGL   45990335 47070166 47180085 46810049 46070115 44340300
       44320343 44680405 45990335
MRGL   28840401 30650429 32410500 32910530 34130569 34880559
       36560504 37210448 37410383 37340306 36890208 36270120
       35529963 34289795 32879732 30329568 29699567 29129590
       28789635 28679668 28599820 28189929 27510020
MRGL   43127959 42947891 42427785 41837706 41127631 40507582
       38507534 37597479 99999999 34027741 34507885 34697912
       35227930 35817914 36417915 37708004 37958054 37618127
       37788183 38348248 38978264 39848274 41028274 42098209
TSTM   30530666 31180679 31860779 31500939 31501089 31981229
       32241309 32951394 33321499 34251605 35451638 35761655
       37911666 40821420 43071294 44391180 44591054 44450876
       44760757 45760632 47160576 49880469 99999999 49569686
       47259704 44829955 42230057 40460054 39069988 37549777
       35179445 33709277 32439199 30599157 28479150 99999999
       26918345 28828231 29458203 30238179 31018074 99999999
       32367934 34677973 35518000 35898047 35858091 35678139
       35338241 35348387 36778544 38048547 38908680 39788716
       41478696 42928628 45088424 45408169 99999999 45177560
       44187516 43257354 42917129 42896884

&&
THERE IS A ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W
HOB 40 NNW HOB 55 WSW LBB 35 WSW LBB 50 SSE LBB 40 NE BGS 40 NNW SJT
35 WSW SJT 70 NNE 6R6 10 SSE FST 10 W FST 35 NW FST 25 W INK 30 E
CNM 30 W HOB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE
MFD 20 S CLE 30 WSW ERI 15 ENE ERI 15 SSE JHW 10 E AOO 20 ESE AOO 20
ENE HGR 15 NW BWI 20 ESE DCA 15 WSW NHK ORF ECG 45 SSW ECG 15 NW EWN
15 SSE GSB 10 WSW RWI 10 S AVC 25 NNW AVC 35 ENE LYH 15 SSE SHD 35
WSW MRB 25 SE MGW 20 NNE CRW 15 S UNI 25 SE MFD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW
6R6 55 SW 6R6 45 ESE GDP 30 NNW CNM 15 N ROW 45 WSW CVS 10 E CVS 10
N PVW 40 SW CDS 70 SSE CDS 40 W MWL 30 W TPL 20 NNW AUS 25 NW BAZ 20
NNW HDO 50 S DRT.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 E
MTH 40 WSW MIA 30 ENE FMY 30 NW AGR 30 NW ORL 15 S SGJ 25 E SGJ.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE
2WX 40 SSW N60 30 N BIS 10 E BIS 50 ENE Y22 20 N RAP 25 NW RAP 65 NW
RAP 30 NNE 2WX.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 105 S
MRF 25 NW MRF 40 NNW GDP 40 SSE SRR 4CR 55 N 4CR 30 WSW RTN 10 WSW
TAD 30 ENE TAD 25 W SPD 15 SW EHA 35 SSE GUY 30 WNW CSM 35 SE FSI
FTW 30 SSW UTS 25 W HOU 25 W LBX PSX 20 SE VCT 35 WNW NIR 20 SSW COT
45 W LRD.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW
BUF 10 W BUF 50 S ROC 25 SSW ELM 35 ESE IPT 25 WSW ABE 15 NE SBY 45
ESE WAL ...CONT... 35 ESE ILM 35 S FAY 25 SW FAY SOP 20 W RDU 15 SE
DAN 15 ESE SSU 15 NW SSU 15 SW BKW 40 W BKW HTS 30 SW UNI 15 SE CMH
20 NW MFD 50 NNW CLE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 S ELP 50 SSW ELP
25 S DMN 15 E DUG 35 W FHU 70 SSE GBN 55 SSW GBN 45 ENE YUM 25 SW
BLH 45 N TRM 45 NNE DAG 65 E NID 25 ESE TPH 10 NW ENV 20 WNW PIH 30
ESE MQM 30 ESE WEY 15 ESE COD 30 W SHR 50 WNW 4BQ 45 W GDV 125 NNW
ISN ...CONT... 55 N HCO 25 NNW FAR 45 NE PIR 30 ENE MHN 20 N MCK 20
S HLC 20 WSW ICT 10 SSW FSM 35 N ELD MLU 35 NE LFT 90 SSW HUM
...CONT... 65 WSW SRQ 25 SSW OCF 20 SE GNV 20 SSW JAX 45 ESE SSI
...CONT... 55 SE CHS 35 N FLO 40 WNW SOP 35 WSW GSO 30 ENE HKY HKY
10 SE AVL 35 SSE TYS 55 ESE BWG 15 SE SDF 20 SSW BMG 25 NNE HUF VPZ
20 S MKG 30 W APN 95 ENE APN ...CONT... 40 WNW MSS 45 ENE ART GFL 20
SSE CON 90 SE PWM.


Source: The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Slight Convective Risk at May 5, 12:53z for portions of PBZ (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2025/day1otlk_20250505_1300.html)

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