PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 2, 1:59 PM CDT
514
FXUS63 KPAH 021859
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
159 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cool and unsettled weekend is in store with scattered showers and
storms expected. Highest chances are on Saturday, when a few
stronger storms may produce some small hail and gusty winds.
- Conditions dry out temporarily early next week, before
additional rain chances return mid week and potentially linger
through late week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025
An upper level low will park itself overhead on Saturday and then
slowly churn to the northeast through Monday. It's presence will
linger PoPs in the forecast until it finally departs, which may not
occur until Monday night into Tuesday. Highest PoPs are on Saturday
with the upper low overhead. Thereafter, highest PoPs are in the
northeast part of the cwa for Sun/Mon. 500mb temps drop into the -20
to -25 C range on Saturday. The cold air aloft is ideal for cold air
funnels to form and also may lead to some small hail and gusty winds
with several of the storms tomorrow. Primary timing on most of the
convection looks to be from late morning through early evening,
before activity dwindles after sunset. High temperatures will be
below normal this weekend, with some places likely not reaching 60
on Sunday.
After the upper low finally lifts off to the northeast, additional
shortwave energy will eject out of the Southern Plains on Tuesday,
which allows additional rain chances to return Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Models vary on the evolution of this energy with some
guidance suggesting another potential upper low of sorts forming. If
this were to occur we may have another prolonged unsettled period
lasting into late week. Confidence is quite low at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025
Numerous -SHRA and embedded TSRA will impact the region this
afternoon. The highest thunder threat is across west KY. Some
brief vsby/cig reductions will likely accompany the heaviest
activity. Looks like a relative lull may occur this evening
before additional -SHRA sweeps northeast overnight into tomorrow
morning, with the emphasis on west KY and southwest IN. Cigs
should lower to MVFR (and possibly even IFR for a time) across
west KY first overnight and eventually the entire region by
morning. Additional scattered convection should develop by late
morning into the afternoon tomorrow. Winds will largely be
variable until Saturday morning when they increase out of the
NW.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 2, 1:59 PM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202505021859-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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