PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 25, 2:29 PM CDT
604
FXUS63 KPAH 251929
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
229 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cooler weekend is in store before temperatures warm back above
normal next week.
- Thunderstorm chances return Tuesday through Thursday next
week. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday
afternoon and evening and possibly again on Thursday. Heavy
rainfall amounts in excess of 1 to 2 inches are also possible
during this period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region this
afternoon will continue into the evening before dry conditions
arrive overnight behind a cold frontal passage. The best mid level
forcing has slid east of our region though, so likely will struggle
to get much in the way of organized activity ahead of it. Can't rule
out an isolated strong storm or two though.
Surface high pressure will become the dominant player in our weather
this weekend. It will be centered across the Western Great Lakes on
Saturday and then drift southeast into Ohio on Sunday. This will
lead to cooler temperatures than recent days. Highs may actually
struggle to get out of the 60s across much of the area, especially
if we see limited sunshine which seems like a good bet. Mid level
energy sliding across the Ozarks on Sunday will generate some
showers across southeast Missouri during the day. Some guidance
tries to bleed this activity east of the Mississippi during the day,
but tend to believe it'll have a hard time pushing into the dry air
associated with the surface high.
The upper level pattern on Sunday will feature troughing across the
Western U.S. An initial wave of energy looks to eject northeast into
the Upper Midwest Monday night and through the Great Lakes on
Tuesday. Meanwhile, secondary vort energy hangs up over the
Southwest U.S. before lifting northeast across the center of the
country Wednesday into Thursday. Our area resides in southwest flow
aloft through the period. A cold front looks to sink south into the
Ohio Valley late Tuesday through Tuesday night and then gets hung up
either over our region or just to our south on Wednesday. Guidance
than suggests an area of low pressure lifting across the Mississippi
Valley on Thursday, which would likely lead to the front pushing
back north. The end result will be multiple waves of showers and
thunderstorms impacting our area beginning on Tuesday and lingering
through Thursday night until the front finally gets shunted to our
southeast.
Severe thunderstorms remain a concern Tuesday afternoon and evening
but will be dependent on timing of the convection. Instability will
be highest during the late afternoon into early evening before
quickly waning during the overnight period. Meanwhile, the best
shear parameters are off to our northeast during this time, so
really need the better instability in order to get well-organized
activity. After a relative lull on Wednesday, it looks like another
chance for severe storms may develop on Thursday. Wind fields may
actually be stronger with this second system, but instability may
not be as high. A lot will also depend on the track of the surface
low and how far north the warm sector makes it. Another concern
during the mid week period will be heavy rainfall with the boundary
draped somewhere in or nearby resulting in repeated rounds of
convection that could produce amounts in excess of 2 inches across
portions of the region.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this
afternoon and evening as a frontal boundary makes passage
across the region. Westerly winds will swing around to northerly
tonight through Saturday. Lingering MVFR cigs early this
afternoon will continue to lift to VFR for all terminals by late
afternoon. Guidance is suggesting a return of MVFR cigs after
06z spreading south through the area that should linger into
tomorrow morning.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 25, 2:29 PM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202504251929-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!