IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 20, 3:06 AM EDT
668
FXUS63 KIWX 200706
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
306 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Plenty of dry hours today but there is a slight chance (20%)
of an afternoon shower.
- Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm move through late tonight.
Severe weather is not expected.
- Mild with chances (30-60%) for rain both mid and late week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025
High pressure over the upper Great Lakes this morning is the
antagonist to rain chances later today. Dew points are in the mid-
40s south of US 30 and in the upper 30s across southern MI. Cross
sections show poor mid- and low-level saturation, especially at
KFWA. Along and west of US 31, a dry sub-cloud layer persists but
mid-level moisture is improved somewhat. RAP guidance suggest the
best moisture pooling is along the Mississippi River, closer to the
low tracking north toward Kansas City this afternoon. Overall, have
maintained an aggressive dry-bias in the POPs today. If there are
showers, the afternoon seems to be the better chance as the warm
front (forcing) lifts in and dew points eventually creep up.
Otherwise, plenty of dry time today.
The aformentioned low will be the forcing mechanism for severe
thunderstorms elsewhere in the Midwest (and Mid-Mississippi Valley)
this evening. Remnants from what is anticipated to be a line of
storms along a cold front moves in after midnight. Instability is
poor at 500j/kg and forecast soundings are once again capped. Just
like 24 hours ago, shear is our best ingredient at 50 knots. Given
the lackluster arrival time, waning instability and CAMs that favor
right-flank development well south of the forecast area, severe
weather is not expected locally; just leftover showers and maybe a
rumble of thunder. Drying out after sunrise Monday.
Zonal flow takes shape for the remainder of the week permitting
normal to above-normal temperatures. On Wednesday, we'll monitor the
chance for showers and thunderstorms to pass through Michigan
associated with a low wrapping up near Winnipeg. The chance for
showers and thunderstorms increases area-wide late in the week with
low pressures taking shape over the southern Mississippi River
Valley and the Northern Plains.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1254 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025
High pressure centered over Lake Superior is keeping dry
conditions around the upper Great Lakes for the first half of
the TAF forecast period. Ceilings have gradually lifted from
MVFR to VFR over the past few hours. Winds will remain light
overnight, ramping up by mid morning with easterly wind gusts
20 to 25 kts possible through much of the day today. As a warm
front lifts north today, a few scattered showers will be
possible in the afternoon. Have kept PROB30 groups at both KFWA
and KSBN for showers and MVFR ceilings/visibilities; the NBM has
20-30% chances of MVFR for a few hours in the afternoon today.
Winds remain elevated through the evening and overnight hours as
our next weather system approaches. Just beyond this TAF
forecast period, a line of showers and storms is expected to
move through the area, likely between 04Z-12Z Monday.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Johnson
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 20, 3:06 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202504200706-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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