JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 22, 2:09 AM EDT
847
FXUS63 KJKL 220609
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
209 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A period of wet weather is forecast Thursday through Sunday.
- Normal to above normal temperatures are expected for the week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1055 PM EDT MON APR 21 2025
A few isolated showers are moving across the region, mainly along
a cold front that extended from near the Elliott/Rowan County
border to northwestern Pulaski County at this time. These have
been too shallow to produce thunder and with only minimal
instability remaining, at best, chances for thunder have been
removed from the forecast for tonight. Also, a few of the valley
locations had experienced enough thinning of low and mid level
clouds to allow cooling to the upper 50s to near 60 and hourly
temperature grids were updated accordingly.
UPDATE Issued at 840 PM EDT MON APR 21 2025
A cold front continues to approach the area from the northwest and
as of 00Z was located from eastern OH to middle TN and was nearing
Fleming County at this time. Some showers continue moving from
eastern TN across the VA border counties while a few isolated to
scattered sprinkles or spotty drizzle may be falling from the low
clouds and weaker returns further northwest. The cold front is
expected to push across the area this evening and until it crosses
a location, at least some additional shower development is anticipated
as several high resolution model runs suggest. Thunder has not
been occurring upstream recently but still cannot be completely
ruled out over the next couple of hours as MUCAPE is currently
analyzed around 250 J/kg across western portions of the CWA and
should remain near those levels ahead of the front. Overall, only
minor updates were made based on recent observations and radar
trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 400 PM EDT MON APR 21 2025
19Z sfc analysis shows a cold front still west of the area while
the initial batch of showers is weakening in the eastern portion
of the state. Winds ahead of the boundary are generally from the
south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to around 20 mph.
Along the front they are gustier with speeds up to 30 mph from the
southwest. The rain has kept temperatures from climbing too high
and capped the warmth with readings currently in the low to mid
60s most places. Meanwhile, under nearly overcast skies, dewpoints
have come up into the low 60s most places. So far, the thunder
has been hard to come by with the showers not achieving much depth
to them.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in pretty
good agreement aloft through the short term period. They all
depict the weakening of the initial Southeast ridge tonight as
troughing lifts through the eastern Great Lakes. This will lead to
a flattening of the pattern at mid levels with loosening zonal
flow over Kentucky through Wednesday morning. Just some weak
energy will work west to east through the area during the short
term as drying takes place at the lower levels. The small model
spread supported using the NBM as the starting point with minimal
adjustments needed through the period - mainly to include more of
a terrain distinction to the temperatures Tuesday night and also
to incorporate the latest CAMs thoughts into the PoPs for the
near term into tonight.
Sensible weather features the fading of the initial batch of
showers in the east through the first part of the evening.
However, this will also allow some late day sunshine and a brief
uptick in instability. As a result, we still expect some
thunderstorms to be possible through the evening, mainly for
western parts of the area - before the cold front moves out of
the state late tonight. High pressure brushing by to the north
will bring some returning sunshine to northern parts of the area
on Tuesday while the stalled front just on the other side of the
Kentucky border will keep a small chance for showers going in the
far southeast. Mostly clear skies later that night then supports
more in the way of a ridge to valley temperature split and valley
fog into Wednesday morning.
The changes to the NBM starting point consisted primarily of
adding more terrain distinction to the temperatures Tuesday night.
As for PoPs - added some details from the CAMs for the near term
and into the forecast for tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 428 AM EDT MON APR 21 2025
Shower chances return to eastern Kentucky Tuesday night and
Wednesday, as a warm front pushes north. Most areas that see
measurable rainfall will be along and south of the Hal-
Rogers/KY-80 corridor, with under a tenth of an inch being most
likely. Thursday through Sunday a series of shortwaves move across
the areas producing periods of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures generally remain in the upper 70s to low 80s through
next Sunday, with Saturday looking to be the coolest of the days
in the lower 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 506 PM EDT MON APR 21 2025
Forecast models are in reasonably good agreement for the long term
period, with differences occurring mainly with timing and strength
of smaller scale features. We should be in a dry break in the
weather as the period starts, with a frontal boundary stalled near
the southern border of TN and somewhat cooler and drier air having
made its way here on the north side. However, there will be a
moisture gradient across our area, and models do suggest that
enough diurnal destabilization may occur for some spotty
convective precip in our southern and southeastern counties in
the afternoon or early evening on Wednesday. The NBM seems to be
overdone with the POP for this compared to latest models runs, and
the MOS from the ECMWF, GFS, and NAM all point to this as well.
Have limited the POP to only 20-30% in our southern and
southeastern counties on Wednesday afternoon and early evening.
The aforementioned front may be poorly defined, but what's left of
it will head back north through KY as a warm front on Thursday,
bringing higher dew points. At the same time, a minor shortwave
trough is expected to ripple eastward through our flow aloft. The
combination will result in a higher POP, with a likelihood of
precip for most of the area. More shortwave troughs move through
aloft on Friday through Saturday, and should bring additional
showers/thunderstorms. A wave on Saturday is expected to be
significant enough to support a surface low to move east northeast
north of the Ohio River. This would send a cold front southeast
through KY, with the cooler and drier air mass behind the front
keeping our POP low for Sunday and Monday. It should be noted that
the GFS has a shortwave trough riding through upper level ridging
over our area to end the weekend, which results in generally
light precip in that model over our area on Sunday into Sunday
night, but this feature is slower in the ECMWF. At that time
length, confidence is lacking in such a weak feature, and only a
minimal POP has been included in the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
Skies continue to clear slowly behind a cold front that passed
through earlier this evening. Clearing skies will aid in valley fog
development across eastern Kentucky now through early morning. A
mixture of VFR and MVFR conditions will likely be observed now
through 08Z, after which valley fog will be most widespread. MVFR
and periods of IFR conditions can than be expected through 13Z.
Beyond 13Z this morning fog will mix out and CIGS will improve to
VFR for all TAF sites.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GINNICK
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 22, 2:09 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202504220609-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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