ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 21, 2:36 AM EDT
926
FXUS61 KILN 210636
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
236 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves east across the area on Monday. This will lead to
occasional showers and a few thunderstorms, primarily through Monday
afternoon. Slightly cooler and drier conditions are expected Tuesday
into Wednesday. A warmer and more humid airmass will filter back
into the region by late week, bringing episodes of showers and
storms back into the area by Thursday and Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A low pressure system will move into the Great Lakes today. Warm,
humid, southerly flow southeast of the low and an associated cold
front will support the persistent chances for showers and
thunderstorms. While some shower/storm activity is possible through
the entire morning and afternoon in the warm sector, the best
concentration is likely to occur along and ahead of the front where
forcing is locally maximized. Severe storms cannot be ruled out with
gusty winds and some hail, but severe parameters are forecast to be
on the marginal side. Breezy, gusty conditions are also expected
today as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the approaching
low. Gusts upwards of 30 mph may occur during peak diurnal mixing
this afternoon. Rain chances, temperatures, and humidity drop after
FROPA later today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the west after FROPA tonight and moves
across the area on Tuesday. Slightly cooler and drier air returns to
the on westerly surface flow. Lows bottom out in the lower 50s to
upper 40s by daybreak before rising into the upper 60s and lower 70s
Tuesday afternoon. Expect a mix of sun and clouds on Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak mid level ridging
will shift east across the region through midweek, leading to dry
conditions and warm temperatures. Highs on Wednesday will be in the
mid to upper 70s.
A weak mid level short wave will lift northeast into the Ohio Valley
on Thursday, followed by a somewhat stronger mid level short wave
that will move east across the region on Friday. This will initially
allow for a warm front to lift north across the Ohio Valley on
Thursday, before a cold front moves east across the region Friday
night into early Saturday. This will lead to a chance for showers
and a few thunderstorms on Thursday with more widespread showers and
thunderstorms then expected for Friday into Friday night. Pcpn will
taper off from the west Saturday morning behind the cold front.
Temperatures will remain above normal Thursday and Friday with highs
in the mid to upper 70s. A more seasonable airmass will then settle
into the region for the weekend with daytime highs in the mid 60s to
near 70 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The TAF period starts off quiet early this morning with VFR
conditions and light winds. The forecast quickly becomes a bit
trickier through the morning and into the afternoon as the chance
for showers and storms increases ahead of a cold front. The
likelihood for a period of MVFR ceilings also accompanies the
shower/storm probabilities. The modeled timing and locations for
shower/storm activity remains fairly uncertain so the details remain
fairly broad in the TAFs through 1800z. By this evening, FROPA is
likely to have occurred supporting an end to shower chances and a
return to VFR conditions.
Southerly winds from 5-10 knots remains in place through 1200z.
Winds veer to the southwest today and increase to around 20 knots
with higher gusts. Winds shift to the west by 0000z Tuesday and
begin to relax after sunset.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday into Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Campbell
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 21, 2:36 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202504210636-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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