LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 21, 3:25 AM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
919
FXUS64 KLIX 210825
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
325 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025
Upper ridging anchored off the Atlantic Coast this morning. A
negatively tilted shortwave was moving through Iowa early this
morning, with a secondary shortwave off the Texas coast. At the
surface, low pressure over southwest Wisconsin had a frontal
boundary southwestward to the ArkLaTex and then to the Rio Grande
Valley. Radar and surface reports indicated a few light rain
showers over southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi, although
rain amounts weren't much more than barely wetting the ground in
most places. Temperatures were between 70 and 75 early this
morning with dew points between 68 and 71.
The upper ridge isn't going much of anywhere through Tuesday,
although the shortwave near the Texas coast this morning will lift
northeastward to near Charlotte by Tuesday evening. The frontal
boundary to our northwest will gradually stretch out more east-
west to our north over the next 36 hours, close to Interstate 20.
Precipitable water values that were around 1.3 inches Sunday
evening will increase to about 1.6 this afternoon, which is around
the 90th percentile climatologically for this time of year. Those
moisture levels will remain in place through Tuesday afternoon.
It may take until afternoon today for moisture to become deep
enough to produce anything more than light rain showers, though.
While instability is sufficient for thunderstorms, and lapse
rates are sufficient, shear is lacking, generally 20 knots or
less. With 500 mb temperatures around -13C, that would indicate
some potential for hail. Cannot entirely rule out a few storms
approaching severe limits this afternoon, mainly across northern
and western portions of the area, closer to the frontal boundary.
While organized forcing may be lacking on Tuesday afternoon,
convective temperatures may be a couple degrees lower. Over the
next 36 hours, most areas should see at least some rain. If a
location gets multiple storms, brief drainage issues are possible,
but it's been almost 2 weeks since much of the local area has had
any significant rainfall.
Temperature guidance is pretty consistent and major adjustments
aren't necessary. Guidance lows may be a shade on the cool side,
but probably not enough to chase.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025
Moisture levels will remain sufficient for thunderstorm
development on Wednesday before drying out somewhat for the end of
the week for much of the area as ridging builds in again from the
west. The operational GFS is a bit more bullish on the ridging
than the ECMWF. The operational ECMWF from the 12z run was on the
wetter side of their ensemble, so the NBM favoring a bit drier
solution fits toward the weekend. As is the case early in the
week, timing of most of the precipitation is likely to be during
the afternoon hours, possibly lingering into the early evening a
bit.
Temperature guidance is consistent from day to day on highs and
lows, with no significant adjustments made.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025
All terminals are in MVFR or almost there already. Cigs have been
falling all evening and BKN to OVC skies around 1200-1500 are
likely going to stay if not lower dropping a few sites into IFR
status through 15/16z. A few sprinkles or lights shra can not be
ruled out overnight but the bulk of the rain will hold off until
the midday and afternoon hours Monday. /CAB/
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025
Main concerns for the marine community over the next 5 days will
be the threat of thunderstorms, as the pressure gradient isn't
expected to be sufficient to produce persistent winds above 15
knots. Thunderstorms could produce locally higher winds and waves,
especially during the first half of the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 82 65 84 65 / 80 40 70 20
BTR 85 67 85 66 / 60 20 70 10
ASD 83 67 84 66 / 60 30 60 10
MSY 83 70 83 69 / 50 30 60 10
GPT 80 68 80 67 / 40 30 60 10
PQL 82 66 82 66 / 20 20 60 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...RW
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 21, 3:25 AM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202504210825-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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