BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 16, 3:14 AM EDT
858
FXUS61 KBOX 160714
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
314 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Drier, windy and cooler weather expected today. Dry Thursday
and Friday, along with a warming trend. Breezy and warm weather
expected Saturday, along with scattered showers ahead of an
approaching cold front. Drier and mild behind the front Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Key Messages:
* Cooler today with breezy west winds gusting up to 40 mph
Persistent low pressure near the Maritimes will combine with a
high pressure over the central USA to generate gusty west winds
today. Modest cold air advection will mean lower high
temperatures today along with plenty of diurnal fair-weather
stratocumulus clouds. Cyclonic flow may lead to a few stray
showers towards the Berkshires. Not expecting much in the way of
precipitation farther east.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
updated 340 PM...
Key Messages:
* Clearing and becoming less gusty tonight into Thursday
Pressure gradient relaxes tonight into Thursday as low pressure
moves east of the Maritimes and high pressure approaches from
the west. Dry weather should continue. Expecting slightly below
normal temperatures, which could get even lower should the winds
diminish more quickly. Thinking there should be just enough
stirring of the boundary layer to prevent stronger radiational
cooling. The tables flip Thursday as plenty of sunshine and
drier air should lead to slightly above normal temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Temperatures steadily increase heading into this weekend,
with potential to see 70F on Saturday
* Precipitation chances return Saturday before possible clearing
Sunday
* Marathon Monday looks to be mainly dry with winds on the lighter
side
Details...
Friday through This Weekend:
Flow becomes more southerly Friday in response to high pressure
shifting offshore and weak warm advection ahead of our next
system. Moisture gradually advects in later in the day resulting
in increasing cloud cover through the day. Warming temperatures
aloft will support warmer temperatures than Thursday with highs
in the low 60s with the exception of the Cape/Islands in the
50s.
As a low pressure system lifts north into Quebec, a weak warm
front should support development of scattered showers by early
evening Friday. Warm 850mb temperatures continue to advect into
southern New England overnight into early Saturday. Despite the
higher cloud covered and unsettled showery regime Saturday, warm
temperatures aloft (12-14C) will support quite a warm day.
Ensembles show highs at least in the mid 60s-low 70s for many
areas Saturday. There is even a portion of members that display
the potential for mid 70s, mainly within the GFS ensemble. This
will likely depend on the chances for some breaks in the clouds
and timing of the front. It will also be a breezier day with a
tightened pressure gradient/LLJ supporting stronger southerly
flow with gusts 25-35 mph.
The cold front swings through by Saturday night switching winds
to the NW. Conditions gradually dry out into early Sunday
morning. A cooler airmass advects in behind the front overnight
Saturday into Sunday. By Sunday afternoon, 850mb temperatures
drop to -1C to -3C, supporting a much cooler day than Saturday
with highs in the 50s for the Cape/Islands and lower 60s
elsewhere.
Early Next Week:
Monday trends mainly dry with temperatures around normal.
Ensembles show a general consensus for zonal flow aloft through
much of next week with a few shortwaves in the flow, signaling
at more of a unsettled pattern in place. A round of light
precipitation is becoming more likely for the Tuesday-Wednesday
timeframe.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
VFR for most through Thursday. Diurnal clouds today, but
clearer skies tonight into Thursday. Gusty west winds up to 35
kt today, slowly diminishing tonight. Strongest wind gusts
across the higher terrain of southern New England. Gusts
anticipated to 20-25 kt tonight into Thursday.
KBOS TAF...High confidence.
KBDL TAF...High confidence.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday Night: VFR.
Friday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Key Points:
* Period of strong W/NW winds today.
* Marginal gale force winds across the waters south of BID-MVY-ACK
Dry weather a good visibility through Thursday. Winds and seas
diminish later today into tonight. Small Craft Advisories
continue for most waters. Gale Warnings continue for the
southern outer coastal waters which will be closer to stronger
winds aloft which could be brought down to the surface.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain
showers.
Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers.
Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain
showers.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
ANZ230>234-251.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ235-237.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ236.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ250.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ254.
Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Mensch
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Mensch
AVIATION...Belk/Mensch
MARINE...Belk/Mensch
Source: BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 16, 3:14 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202504160714-KBOX-FXUS61-AFDBOX)
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