PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 21, 2:03 PM CDT
352
FXUS63 KPAH 211903
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
203 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and dry conditions are expected Monday through Wednesday
with a warming trend from Tuesday through Thursday.
- Chances of showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday night
and continue into next weekend. Up to an inch of rain expected
for that time period with heavy downpours and lightning being
the main concerns at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025
Generally expecting quiet weather across the Quad State area tonight
through Wednesday as high pressure gradually drifts eastward through
the region.
The next time period of more unsettled weather will be Wednesday
night through Friday night with showers and thunderstorms spreading
across the area. Warm moist air will flow northward into the area as
southerly flow increases on the back side of the departing high and
ahead of an ill-defined surface low progressing across the central
CONUS for the end of the week. Aloft, several shortwaves are
expected to pass through or just north of the Quad State, each
bringing increased chances for showers and thunderstorms. Overall
instability looks to be around 500-1000 J/kg; however, shear values
are only progged to be around 20 to 25kts. This suggests
thunderstorms are expected across the area for Thursday and Friday,
but widespread severe is not anticipated at this time. Rainfall
totals for that time period (Wednesday night-Friday night) are
expected to be around a half inch up to an inch. Temperatures will
warm into the upper 70s to low 80.
A cold front will shift east of the area by late Friday night, which
will allow for a brief break in the precipitation for Saturday.
Temperatures will cool slightly for Saturday, but are expected to
remain stay in the 70s for most locations.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025
Brief MVFR conditions are possible at each TAF site for the
first couple hours of this issuance; however, cloud cover is
expected to mix out this afternoon. VFR conditions will then
prevail through the rest of this issuance as high pressure
builds into the Quad State area. Winds will diminish and become
light later this afternoon through Tuesday morning.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 21, 2:03 PM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202504211903-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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