BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 13, 3:30 AM EDT
188
FXUS61 KBOX 130730
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
330 AM EDT Sun Apr 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of Southern New England will continue to
bring overcast and periods of rain and enhanced northerly winds
today. Decreasing cloud cover later this afternoon in western
New England and into tonight for eastern areas. Much milder
Monday and Tuesday with highs into the 60s. Dry weather should
prevail Monday, but a disturbance will bring scattered showers
to the region Monday night and perhaps into Tuesday, but a
washout is not expected. Dry, but blustery and cooler weather
returns Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures then rebound
Friday into Saturday with perhaps a few showers sometime Friday
night and/or Saturday with the next disturbance.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM Update:
Key Messages:
* Overcast continues most of the day in eastern MA and RI, with
periods of light rain, drizzle and northerly breezes. Temps only
warming slightly in the 40s.
* Overcast in western New England this morning, but with peeks of
sunshine early to mid-afternoon. Temps warming into the low-mid
50s.
Details:
Dreary, raw overcast conditions with NE breezes and periods of
drizzle continue early this morning across Southern New England.
Strongest gusts remain over eastern and southeastern portions
of the area, where gusts have been as high as 40 mph at
Nantucket. Temps just haven't changed much either with the
clouds and breezes, with many areas hovering in the mid to upper
30s. In fact the temperature at Logan Airport has stayed at 37
degrees since yesterday's 13z ob. Regional radar and cooler
cloud top temps on infrared satellite imagery infer another
round of steadier light rains approaching our southern waters,
associated with a weak secondary low pressure well south of
Nantucket. This is expected to pinwheel/slingshot northward to
brush at least central and eastern portions of Southern New
England this morning. It is still uncertain how far west this
precip shield makes it, but the best chance for another round of
steady light rain (PoPs 60-90%) is from about a Worcester to
Willimantic line eastward to the Cape. Most of the day in
western New England should be dry, though can't rule out some
drizzle at times.
Will any areas shake free of cloud cover today? The good news
if you live in western and central MA into northern CT, it's
looking like the answer is yes, but not until the early to
midafternoon hours as winds shift to NW and allows some mixing
to scour out some of the cloud cover. These areas have the best
chance at seeing highs reach the lower 50s. For much of eastern
MA and RI, it's looking like low clouds will linger most of the
daytime period, continued robust onshore breezes during the
morning will shift to NW and allow for some modest warming.
Temps here in the 40s, with low 40s for the Cape and Islands.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
330 AM Update:
Key Messages:
* Decreasing clouds tonight, cooler lows interior Southern New
England.
* Sunny and turning milder Monday with above normal temps, even a
few mid 60s? Possible seabreeze for both coasts.
Details:
Tonight through Monday:
Tonight opens with variable cloudiness, with mostly clear
conditions from Worcester westward, and still some straggling
overcast over eastern MA and most of RI. But all areas will be
trending to clear skies as we move through the night. NW winds
will also be slackening tonight to under 5 mph, except around
5-10 mph for the immediate coast as low pressure continues to
pull away. With several hours of clear skies and light winds in
interior SNE, these areas should really radiate pretty well
tonight with lows in the lower to mid 30s. Further east, where
temps will be opening cooler than the interior, temps will be
slower to fall with the slower exit of clouds and continued if
easing NW winds, down to lows in the mid to upper 30s. With how
damp we've been and only modest lowering of dewpoints, it
wouldn't entirely shock me if some areas see some radiation fog
develop.
After an overcast and chilly weekend, we finally are able to
get some sunshine in all areas as we move into Monday. This
occurs as sfc high and subsidence associated with 500 mb ridge
axis build over and just east of SNE. Winds to flip to SW around
5-10 mph late in the day. With good mixing and several hours of
sunshine, many areas stand to warm well into the 50s to low/mid
60s. Something to watch is the potential for a seabreeze to
keep the coasts quite a bit cooler as the gradient slackens
during the early afternoon before the SWlys pick up.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Much milder Mon & Tue with highs well into the 60s
* Scattered showers Mon night perhaps into Tue...but not a washout
* Dry, blustery & chillier Wed with highs upper 40s to lower 50s
* Dry & still breezy Thu with highs in the 50s
* Temps moderate Fri and Sat with a few showers Fri night and/or Sat
Details...
Monday and Tuesday...
Mid level ridging ahead of the next trough working into the Great
Lakes will result in much milder temps Mon into Tue. High temps
should reach well into the 60s both days with a low risk a few spots
reach 70 on Tue. Dry weather should prevail during the day Mon...but
a mid level shortwave will bring a round of scattered showers to the
region Mon night. A few more showers are possible sometime Tue with
the actual cold front...but much of the day may end up dry.
Wednesday and Thursday...
Blustery and much chillier air works into the region by Wed behind a
fairly strong cold front. While it will be dry, high temps will be
held in the upper 40s to the lower 50s with gusty west winds. Lows
Wed night may be down near freezing or a few degrees below in some
of the typically prone outlying locations. And it still will be dry
and a bit breezy Thu with seasonable highs in the 50s.
Friday and Saturday...
The upper trough shifts east of the region with rising height fields
by the end of the week. Highs will probably back into the 60s Fri
and Sat. The next shortwave approaching may bring a few more showers
to the region sometime Fri night and/or Sat.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06z TAF Update:
Through Today: High confidence in trends, but moderate on
western extent of light rain.
From ORH eastward...mainly IFR with stratus, drizzle, and mist
along with a renewed period of light rain moving landward from
the southeast waters. This rain is already beginning to approach
ACK and should continue to pivot NW during the morning, which
more or less continues most of the day. Unclear how far west
this rain may advance, but these TAFs have the best chance at
seeing at least periods of steadier light rain. Visbys as low as
3SM at times, but should range between 5SM to P6SM. ORH could
begin to see MVFR bases as soon as 19z, with some optimism we
could see MVFR for the rest of the eastern airports around
22-00z. NE to N winds around 10-20 kt, highest speeds further
south and east one goes with gusts 25-30 kt for most, up to 35
kt for ACK. Winds to gradually become NNW/NW with a decrease in
speed during the afternoon to around 8-12 kt with occasional
gusts to 20 kt.
For BAF and BDL...MVFR stratus continues and should remain more
or less steady into the morning hours. Patchy drizzle at times,
but chances for steadier light rain are pretty low. Ceilings to
start to lift and scatter to SCT-BKN VFR around 17-19z. N winds
here around 10 kt, which shift to NW ~17-19z.
Tonight: High confidence in trends, moderate on timing.
Steadier light rain will pull away early tonight with improving
categories from MVFR-IFR to VFR at all terminals. Low prob
(< 20%) that western airports see radiation fog close to
daybreak given the damp conditions we've had last couple days.
NW winds easing to 5 kt for most, but still running around 10 kt
for the east coastal airports.
Monday: High confidence.
VFR. Easing NW winds, which shift to W and then SW around 5-10
kt. Outside chance that BOS seabreezes after 17z.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. IFR cigs most of the day with
steady light rain and/or drizzle, with mist at times. Some MVFR
optimism by 21z, but more likely late this aftn and early
tonight. VFR tonight. NNE winds 15-20 kt with gusts upper
20s-kt range thru AM, then easing to N/NW around 10-12 kt this
aftn, which continue tonight.
KBDL TAF...High confidence. MVFR cigs, intermittent drizzle at
times. MVFR cigs scatter to VFR around 17-19z, with VFR then
expected into Monday. N winds around 10 kt shift to NW and
decrease in speed to around 5-10 kt this aftn, then 5 kt or less
tonight.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. SHRA likely.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA, chance RA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Monday: High confidence.
SCAs continue on all waters, which will be gradually peeled away
as NE to N wind gusts 25-30 kt (ocnl near-gale force gusts
eastern waters) come to an end early tonight. Buoys over
eastern MA waters indicate wave heights that have been as high
as 10 ft. Expect continued rough seas thru tonight, as it will
take time for these waves to fall below SCA levels. Seas over
outer waters in SCA range may continue into part of Monday. SW
winds on Monday around 10-15 kt.
Another round of rain is expected today, but drying out by
tonight. Dry weather for Monday.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers, chance of rain.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance
of rain showers.
Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ230-
233>237.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ231-251.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ232.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ250-254-255.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...Hrencecin
AVIATION...Loconto/Hrencecin
MARINE...Loconto/Hrencecin
Source: BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 13, 3:30 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202504130730-KBOX-FXUS61-AFDBOX)
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