BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 12, 2:26 AM EDT
213
FXUS61 KBOX 120626
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
226 AM EDT Sat Apr 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will lift northeast of the mid-Atlantic coast tonight
into Saturday. This will bring mainly rain to areas along and
southeast of the Boston to Providence corridor...but some snow and
sleet is expected across the interior and especially the higher
terrain. Precipitation will taper off to pockets of light rain and
drizzle Saturday afternoon. Additional showers are likely in eastern
New England on Sunday followed dry and milder conditions
Monday. A frontal system will bring another period of showers
Monday night into Tuesday then mainly dry and blustery Wednesday
and Thursday. The pattern turns unsettled again next Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Key Messages...
* Rain & wet snow mainly after midnight into Sat AM
* Ptype mainly rain southeast of I-95 but some snow/sleet NW of I-95
* 1-4" of wet snow/sleet across interior high terrain
* Main impacts to roads confined to elevations at or above 1K feet
Details...
High pressure over Quebec will be just enough to support another
round of wet snow/sleet across interior southern New England later
tonight into Sat morning.
Low pressure will lift northeast from the mid Atlantic coast
tonight. This coupled with high pressure over Quebec will result in
a modest easterly LLJ developing across southern New England. While
much of the evening will be dry...except perhaps for a bit of rain
by late evening near the south coast. The better forcing will arrive
from south to north after midnight and continue into Sat morning.
Thermal profiles are a touch milder than last night...so Ptype will
mainly be rain southeast of I-95 although a few wet snow
flakes/sleet pellets may be mixed in at the onset.
However...northwest of I-95 enough cooling via dynamic/adiabatic
processes to support a period of wet snow and perhaps some sleet. In
fact...there is a brief but strong band of mid level frontogenesis
with 30-40 units of omega in the snowgrowth region. Therefore...we
are thinking a brief burst of 1-4" of wet snow across portions of
interior MA. Given marginal boundary layer temperatures and the time
of year...roadways will remain wet or only very briefly become slush
covered in the lower elevations overnight into Sat morning.
However...at elevations near and above 1000 feet roads may become
snow covered for a time into Sat morning. Therefore...we did issue a
Winter Weather Advisory for the high terrain of the Berks/northern
Worcester Hills as well as all of Franklin county.
Overnight low temps will mainly be in the lower to middle 30s. It
will also become quite breezy along the coast by Sat morning with NE
wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Key Messages...
* Precipitation changes/tapers off to pockets of light rain/drizzle
Sat afternoon which continues Sat night with focus near the coast
* Quite raw and chilly Sat afternoon & night with temps mainly in
the 30s and a gusty NE breeze along the coast
Details...
Saturday afternoon and night...
Low pressure will meander to our south Sat afternoon and night...but
the stronger forcing/deeper moisture will lift north of the region.
Therefore...expect precipitation to diminish in intensity and areal
coverage. Nonetheless...moist onshore flow will continue to result in
pockets of light rain/drizzle and fog Sat afternoon and night. It
will be raw and quite chilly too with temps generally in the 30s
with gusty NE winds near the coast. Temps may hover around freezing
in the highest terrain...so some pockets of light freezing drizzle
will be possible but with temps near 31/32 do not expect much of an
impact.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Rain lingers across eastern Massachusetts Sunday
* More showers Mon night into Tue as a frontal system moves through
* Mainly dry and blustery Wed and Thu with below normal temps
* Another frontal system may bring an increasing risk of wet weather
Fri but timing uncertain.
Details...
Cutoff low south of New Eng moves to the east during Sun, but deep
moisture plume lingering across eastern New Eng will result in a raw
day here with on and off showers, gusty N winds and cool temps,
while some drying and somewhat milder temps expected in the CT
valley. This system moves out by Monday as brief ridging builds in
to the region leading to sunshine and seasonable temps.
Next northern stream shortwaves will amplify as it moves into New
Eng on Tue. The attending cold front will swing through Mon night
and will be accompanied by a period of showers. The front moves
offshore Tue, but the upper trough is hanging back to the west with
shortwave energy rotating through with a secondary cold front so
scattered showers expected to develop. Mild temps in the 60s
expected.
Cooler airmass and blustery conditions settle in Wed-Thu but mainly
dry weather with slightly below normal temps. Then next in a series
of northern stream shortwaves approaches for the end of the week.
Timing and amplitude of this system is uncertain and GFS is more
aggressive than ECMWF bringing in showers for Fri. But EPS is wetter
than the deterministic run indicating 20-40% probs of greater than
0.10" QPF, while GEFS is showing 40-60%. Will have chance of showers
for Fri.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06z TAF Update:
Through 12z Saturday: High confidence.
Mix of flight categories currently, predominantly VFR/MVFR with
plain rain or rain mixed with snow, with areas IFR restricted
to the higher terrain in wet snow. Deterioration expected to
widespread MVFR-IFR as shield of steady precipitation moves
northward from the mid-Atlantic/southern NY area thru 12z Sat.
NE winds around 10-13 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt for the
interior, with stronger NE winds around 15 kt with gusts 25-30
kt (up to 35 kt at ACK).
Today: High confidence in trends but moderate on exact timing.
MVFR-IFR in steady rain (at times mixed with wet snow in lower
elevations to I-95), with periods of wet snow and visbys 1-4SM
and minor slushy accumulation at ORH/BAF. Steadiest precip
shield (liquid and wintry) moves northward from approx 13z
south coast to 17z near the northern border with VT/NH, give or
take an hour or two. Once that occurs, precipitation tapers off
to an intermittent light rain/drizzle with areas of 4-6 SM mist
into the afternoon. NE winds 15-20 kt with gusts 20-30 kt,
highest near the coasts.
Tonight: High confidence, though becomes moderate overnight.
MVFR-IFR continues with stratus, fog/mist and drizzle or
intermittent light rains. Another shield of steadier light rain
moves westward from the ocean towards the eastern MA coast and
could make it as far west as central MA/RI between 09-12z
Sunday. NE winds around 15 kt with gusts 25-30 kt early shift to
N around 8-12 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt for the eastern
MA coast.
Sunday: Moderate confidence.
MVFR-IFR with areas of drizzle and mist generally continues
into Sunday, although there could be some VFR breaks late in the
day at BAF/BDL. Best chance at steady light rain is eastern MA
and into RI, although its western extent is still a little
uncertain. Any rain near the eastern coasts should pull away
late. N winds around 8-12 kt become NW and then decrease to 5-10
kt by afternoon.
KBOS TAF...High confidence. MVFR to IFR with mostly rain with
wet snow mixing in at times 06-08z with NE winds around 15
kt/gusts 20-25 kt. Steadiest rain tapers off around 15-16z to
drizzle and mist, although IFR ceilings expected to continue
through tonight.
KBDL TAF...High confidence. MVFR to IFR with rain and wet snow
through mid morning, then steady precip tapers off to drizzle
and mist, although IFR ceilings continue into tonight. NE to N
winds around 10 kt.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Monday: VFR.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight through Saturday night...High Confidence.
High pressure over Quebec coupled with slow moving low pressure to
our south will result in modest pressure gradient. The result will
be NE wind gusts of 25 to 35 knots developing later tonight into
Saturday with a few gusts up to 40 knots possible across the
southern waters. Gale warnings are posted for the southern waters
with strong small craft headlines across the northern waters. Winds
will only slowly diminish Sat night so will need to continue small
craft headlines.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Slight chance of rain showers.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
MAZ002>004-008-009-026.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ230.
Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ231>235-237-
254>256.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ236.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ250.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/Frank
NEAR TERM...KJC/Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...Loconto/Hrencecin
MARINE...Loconto/Hrencecin
Source: BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 12, 2:26 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202504120626-KBOX-FXUS61-AFDBOX)
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