IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 13, 2:26 PM EDT
599
FXUS63 KIWX 131826
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
226 PM EDT Sun Apr 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered light rain showers are possible this afternoon and
again on Monday but coverage will remain low. Isolated
thunderstorms are also possible south of Highway 24 on Monday
afternoon.
- Warm on Monday with highs well into the 60s.
- Cooler and breezy on Tuesday with northwest wind gusts up to
35-40 mph.
- Additional chances for rain and storms on Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sun Apr 13 2025
An area of low pressure currently centered over Nebraska will bring
us chances for a few light showers today and a few showers/storms
tomorrow. The warm front associated with this system is draped across
northern Missouri and southern Illinois as of midday and will be
moving northward this evening. Dry conditions prevail for many
locations today, although can't rule out a few stray
showers/sprinkles as WAA and moisture increases ahead of the front.
As WAA ramps up today, southerly winds gusts to 30 mph will be
possible through the afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 50s to
low 60s.
On Monday, the area of low pressure will deepen as it moves
northeast from the Midwest over Lake Superior and into Ontario. Lows
will be mild overnight in the 50s, and with continued WAA, highs
will reach the low to mid 60s area-wide on Monday. The system's
attendant cold front will sweep through our forecast area during the
day Monday, with low chances (20-40%) for showers and thunderstorms
in the late morning/afternoon. As the cold front interacts with the
warm air and moisture, scattered showers will likely develop. With
~500 J/kg of MUCAPE and strong shear, a few storms are possible too,
especially along and south of the US 24 corridor. The northwest
portion of our forecast area will likely remain dry tomorrow as the
cold frontal passage occurs in the morning; we expect the cold front
to be fully out of our area between 2-5 PM EDT tomorrow. Because the
cold front will move through mainly before peak diurnal heating
occurs, the better dynamics for storms (including severe weather)
will be off to our southeast.
We make a brief return towards winter on Tuesday with scattered rain
showers, cool temperatures, and wind gusts up to 35-40 mph! Tuesday
will be cooler - with highs only in the 40s - thanks to strong CAA
with the tightening pressure gradient on the backside of the low.
Northwest winds will gust up to 35-40 mph on Tuesday. Scattered lake
effect rain/snow showers will be possible, particularly north of US
6, throughout morning hours as a trough pivots through.
The next chances for rain arrive late in the week on Thursday and
Friday, however, considerable uncertainty remains due to divergent
model solutions. The Storm Prediction Center has added a 15% severe
risk across our entire forecast area, as a cold front will likely
bring shower/storm chances back to our area between Friday
afternoon and Saturday morning. Stay tuned for updates!
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 123 PM EDT Sun Apr 13 2025
As an area of mid level moisture moves through the area this
afternoon ahead of a warm front, some meager mid level instability
(a few hundred Js of CAPE) may allow for a few showers, but those
appear to be hampered by a dry layer between 800mb and the surface
so it may just be sprinkles. Flight conditions don't appear to drop
into MVFR until at least 4z to 8z tonight. There may be a brief
period of IFR CIGs after 9z and into early Monday, but it's too
brief at SBN and doesn't reach far enough south for FWA and RH is
not as high as would be needed, so will leave it out of the TAFs for
this issuance. South southeasterly winds become southwesterly Monday
morning ahead of the approaching cold front. Gusty winds around 25
kts calm down this evening, but there could be some 20 to 25 kt
gusts on Monday as well. Will also have some LLWS with the warm
front around.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Roller
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 13, 2:26 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202504131826-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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