BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 10, 2:55 PM EDT
609
FXUS61 KBOX 101855
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
255 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving disturbance will bring rain and wet snow to the region
later tonight...but not expecting an impact to travel. Cloudy but
generally dry for Friday, but we expect another soaking, windswept
rain event for late Friday night into Saturday with some wet
snow/ice possible at the onset across the interior high terrain.
Additional rain possible in eastern New England on Sunday. Milder
temperatures are on top for the first half of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages...
* Rain & Wet Snow arrives from west to east between 8 pm & 2 am with
Ptype trending to mainly wet snow away from south coast
* 1-2" of wet snow accumulation possible mainly across the interior
high terrain overnight but with roadways remaining generally wet
Shortwave trough will lift across the eastern Great Lakes tonight.
This will induce a modest southerly LLJ and with ample moisture
precipitation will overspread the region from west to east between 8
pm and 2 am. Ptype might be rain at the onset in the lower
elevations...but given the thermal profiles we should see
dynamic/adiabatic cooling processes flip most locations over to wet
snow at least away from the south coast later this evening into the
overnight hours. Not expecting much of an impact given temps mainly
above freezing and the time of year. However...we may see 1-2" of
wet snow on grassy surfaces mainly across the interior high terrain.
Some very minor accumulations are possible on grassy surfaces in the
lower elevations if there is enough intensity...but not an impact to
travel. Overnight low temps will mainly be in the lower-middle 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...
* Rain and wet snow departs Fri morning with mainly dry but
cloudy weather the rest of the day and highs in the 40s to near 50
* Rain overspreads the region late Friday night from south to north
with some wet snow/ice possible across the interior high terrain
Details...
Friday...
The shortwave and deeper moisture will be lifting to the
north...bringing an end to any remaining rain or wet snow Fri
morning. Otherwise...high pressure across eastern Canada will result
in ENE low level flow and skies remaining rather cloudy. High temps
will mainly be in the 40s to near 50 with the coolest temps along
the coast.
Friday night...
Low pressure emerges off the mid Atlantic coast and slowly lifts
northeast Fri night. While much of Fri evening will be
dry...precipitation will begin to overspread much of the region from
south to north after midnight. Ptype will mainly be rain in the
lower elevations, but high pressure over Quebec will result in
marginally cold enough air for a bit of wet snow/ice across parts of
the interior high terrain. It is possible that some locations across
the high terrain see minor snow accumulations along with a bit of
ice. Later shifts may have to consider a Winter Weather Advisory
depending on model trends. Low temperatures will mainly be in the
30s. It will also becoming a bit breezy along the coast especially
after midnight.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Dreary and unsettled through Sunday
* Steady rain lingers over the Cape and Islands Sunday, showers
elsewhere.
* Warmer to start the week before the chance for more rain returns
with another frontal system midweek.
Details...
Brief break in rainfall Saturday night as low pressure becomes
vertically stacked under the cutoff low. The second in a series of
low pressure systems passes close to but south of southern New
England, leading to the return of rain chances across the eastern MA
coast Sunday. Totals for this event will likely be a bit lower, as
the rain associated with this should be lighter. Forecast soundings
indicate some drier air aloft while PWATs are still in the 0.7-0.75"
range along the eastern coast. These will likely fall as the day
progresses and dry air moves into the region. Still a bit of wiggle
room with the exact track of this secondary area of low pressure
which could impact eventual rainfall totals.
The trough associated with the weekend's unsettled weather is
expected to move offshore by the start of next week. Ridging and
surface high pressure builds in a bit Monday ahead of yet another
trough across the Great Lakes. N/NW winds shift south Monday
night/Tuesday morning with the arrival of a warm front, and low rain
chances make a return going into Tuesday. A deepening area of low
pressure near the southern Hudson Bay may push a strong cold front
through the region later Tuesday. Ensembles show 850 mb temps
plunging to between -5 and -10C behind this feature. 850 mb
temps of this magnitude would likely result in below-average
temps across the eastern CONUS. Temperatures to start the week
will likely be warmer, with highs on Monday and Tuesday reaching
the 60s. Cooler and possibly unsettled weather may make its
return by midweek with this frontal system.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18z TAF Update...
This afternoon...High Confidence.
VFR. Wind becoming S 5-10 knots except for localized sea breezes
on the immediate coast.
Tonight...High Confidence on trends with moderate confidence on
timing.
Rain and wet snow overspreads western MA/CT/RI between 00z and
04z reaching the eastern MA coast by 06z/07z. Ptype will trend
towards mainly wet snow away from the south coast...but runways
will remain wet. These conditions will result in low end MVFR-
IFR conditions developing from west to east this evening and
into the overnight hours. S winds under 10 knots will shift to
the E toward daybreak Fri.
Friday...Moderate Confidence.
Any leftover rain/wet snow lifts north of the region Fri
morning and comes to an end. Lingering MVFR-IFR conditions
early will trend to higher end MVFR to even VFR thresholds by
afternoon. ENE winds 5-15 knots.
Friday night...Moderate Confidence.
Much of Friday evening will probably be dry...but the next round
of precipitation will arrive from south to north mainly after
midnight. This will result in widespread MVFR with localized
IFR conditions developing. Ptype will mainly be rain except a
bit of wet snow/ice possible across the interior high terrain.
NE winds 5-15 knots with some gusts of 20 to 30 knots developing
late along portions of the coast.
KBOS TAF...High Confidence in TAF trends with moderate
confidence in timing.
KBDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF trends with moderate
confidence in timing.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with
areas of gusts up to 35 kt. RA, chance FZRA.
Saturday Night through Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible.
Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight through Friday night...High Confidence.
A weak pressure gradient will keep winds/seas below small craft
advisory thresholds tonight into Fri. However...high pressure over
Quebec coupled with approaching low pressure from the southwest will
result in increasing NE wind gusts of 25 to 35 knots late Fri and
especially Fri night. The strongest of the winds will be across the
southern outer-waters where we have hoisted a Gale Watch. We will
certainly need small craft advisories across the rest of the waters.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Rain.
Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Rain showers likely.
Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Rain showers likely.
Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for
ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/FT
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...FT
AVIATION...Frank/FT
MARINE...Frank/FT
Source: BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 10, 2:55 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202504101855-KBOX-FXUS61-AFDBOX)
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