CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 13, 9:11 PM EDT
507
FXUS61 KCLE 140111
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
911 PM EDT Sun Apr 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the Upper Midwest will lift a warm front
across the region tonight. This low will track through the
northern Great Lakes Monday, dragging a cold front through the
region in the afternoon and evening. A secondary cold front will
drop through the region Tuesday as the low drifts across eastern
Ontario and Quebec. High pressure will finally return by
Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Isentropic lift is progressing across the area this evening as
high and mid clouds spread across the region. Cloud tops are
warming and the regional radar shows only a few returns over
central MI and western Ohio. Some upper level divergence is
shown at 300 mb across the region but moisture seems to be
limited with surface dewpoints in the 25-35F range. We can
expect some virga or light showers to develop tonight but QPF
will be minimal and scattered. Current min temperature forecast
seems reasonable.
Previous discussion...
A change to the weather pattern is taking place this afternoon as an
unseasonably deep mid/upper shortwave trough digs into the northern
Plains. This is supporting surface cyclogenesis over Iowa and
Minnesota, extending a warm front through Illinois and Indiana.
Broad S to SE low-level flow and warm air advection combined with
mid-level isentropic ascent has led to mid-level clouds advecting
over the region ahead of the warm front. There is a lull in the
light showers at the moment, but regional radar loops show these
increasing over Illinois and Indiana, so expect showers to spread in
from west to east this evening and tonight as the warm front crosses
the region. Better synoptic support as a lobe of mid-level PVA
crosses the Lower Great Lakes overnight ahead of the aforementioned
shortwave trough will lead to the showers expanding as they spread
across the region due to enhancement of the overall warm advection
and isentropic ascent, so raised PoPs slightly from the previous
forecast. QPF will be light overnight though, with generally a few
hundredths to up to 0.10 inch. A much milder night is on tap given
the warm air advection, with lows in the mid/upper 40s tonight,
except low/mid 40s in far NE Ohio and NW PA.
There will be a lull in the showers much of Monday in the warm
sector before the cold front sweeps across the region in the
afternoon and evening, sparking a line of showers and some embedded
thunder. First off, the severe weather threat continues to shift
south of the region given very limited instability (MLCAPE only 150-
300 J/Kg). However, the right entrance region of a 115-125 knot H3
jet streak and 80-90 knot H5 jet streak as the mid/upper trough axis
slides into the Great Lakes will encourage strong frontogenetic
forcing ahead of the cold front. This will lead to widespread
showers with briefly heavier rain. Cannot rule out small hail and
gusty winds in the SE counties (around the US 30 corridor) closer to
the tongue of greater instability given very impressive 0-6 Km shear
of 60-65 knots and steep mid-level lapse rates over 7 C/Km, but this
will likely be a scenario where the convection is just starting to
develop over our SE counties and doesn't mature until it is south
and east of the region, so nothing significant or widespread is
expected. Timing of these showers developing looks to be 15-17Z in
NW Ohio, 17-19Z in north central Ohio, and 19-21Z in NE Ohio/NW PA.
The cold front should be moving into western PA by 00Z Tuesday, and
expect drier air to move in rather quickly behind it supporting a
sharp cut off to the precip. Have PoPs quickly decreasing from west
to east Monday evening into Monday night. However, as the mid/upper
trough axis and associated closed mid-level low dig into the Great
Lakes, deeper moisture and a pool of cold air aloft will cause
showers to fill back in late Monday night and Tuesday morning, so
brought chance PoPs back late.
Highs in the mid/upper 60s Monday will drop into the upper 30s/low
40s behind the cold front Monday night as winter struggles to
completely go away.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Post cold frontal environment features descending air in cold air
advection and increasing winds Tuesday. Wind gusts 30-40mph in
chillier air filtering into northern Ohio and northwestern
Pennsylvania while the surface and upper air systems make an
expeditious exit towards the Atlantic Canada coast. Focus then turns
to the west northwest flow coming off of Lake Erie, which has had a
little bit of time to warm into the 40s and 850mb temperatures
dropping to near -10C. Will have some instability up to around 775-
800mb and expect showers transitioning to rain/snow shower mix and
then all snow showers Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The time
needed for the transition will take away from the overall snow
amount potential, but expecting a couple inches in the favored WNW
flow areas of far NE OH/NW PA. Inversion layer gradually lowers
Tuesday night into Wednesday, and the snow showers are expected to
end Wednesday afternoon, while again, the system makes an exit
eastward. Temperatures are going to vary widely from west to east on
Wednesday. Western zones will see clearing and some insolation and
temperatures rebounding fairly well to the mid 50s, but further east
where the clouds lingering late into the heating of the day, 40F may
not be achievable. Winds going calm and clearing Wednesday night
under high pressure brings inland areas below freezing, and mid 30s
near the lakeshore.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Progressive pattern with upper level ridging and a warm front coming
through Thursday night/Friday morning in a warming trend for the
region. Breezy in the warm sector Friday, and will need to watch for
a thunderstorm potential with the approach of the trailing cold
front of the low pressure system Friday evening into Friday night.
Cooler, but not as much of a drop off in temperatures for the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR conditions will prevail through most of night despite
considerable high and mid clouds with mainly virga. The dry
boundary layer is likely evaporating most of the precipitation.
Expect clouds to lower to MVFR Monday morning and drop lower to
IFR in the day as showers spread over the area ahead and along a
cold front that will cross the region. Some thunder is possible
from mid day and into the afternoon along and ahead of the
front but coverage and intensity will be limited by low
instability. Precipitation will end from west to east behind the
front Monday evening.
South to southeast winds of 5-10 knots tonight will become
southwest at 10-15 knots with gusts of 20-25 knots ahead of the
front and westerly at 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots after
fropa at KFDY and KTOL.
Outlook...Non-VFR expected with rain, changing to snow, in NE
OH and NW PA on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Non-VFR ceilings
possible in NE OH/NW PA on Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Offshore winds tonight increasing to 15kts through early Monday
ahead of a strong cold front later in the day Monday. Winds increase
dramatically out of the west 15-20kts Monday night, then to 25-30kts
sustained Tuesday. Wave heights increase downwind to the 6-8ft
range, decreasing to 4-7ft Tuesday night into Wednesday as winds
ease out of the northwest but still at 15-25kts. Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed late Monday night.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...LaPlante
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...LaPlante
MARINE...26
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 13, 9:11 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202504140111-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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