Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #139 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
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AWUS01 KWNH 141916
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MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-150115-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0139
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 PM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025
Areas affected...West Virginia, southern Ohio, northern/eastern
Kentucky
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 141915Z - 150115Z
Summary...Scattered convection will produce areas/spots of 1
inch/hr rain rates at time, posing a risk of isolated flash
flooding through 04Z this evening.
Discussion...Over the past hour, scattered convection has
developed from Bloomington to near Cincinnati. These cells were
on the northeastern extent of an axis of 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE and
were also along and just ahead of a surface front that was making
steady eastward progress across the Ohio Valley. Convection was
already oriented parallel to steering flow aloft - with localized
training noted just south of Cincinnati already prompting
MRMS/local radar estimates of 0.75 inch/hr rain rates in a few
spots.
Through the afternoon, convection will mature and increase in
coverage, with supercellular wind profiles, moderate instability,
and continued orientation parallel to mean flow aloft supporting
localized areas of training. Occasional areas of 1 inch/hr rain
rates are expected, which could fall over sensitive areas and
prompt isolated flash flooding. Areawide FFGs are in the 1-1.5
inch/hr range and should be approached on an isolated basis where
the most focused/pronounced training could occur. Convection
should move quickly eastward over the discussion area due to fast
flow aloft, with flash flood potential increasing over West
Virginia from the 22Z/5pm timeframe onward. CAMs also indicate
potential for convective development southwestward along the front
(across Kentucky) that could produce brief/spotty flash flooding
if localized convective training can materialize.
Cook
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...
ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 39798072 39207927 38027965 37388120 37008451
37258573 37998577 39388566 39748379
Source: Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #139 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE (https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=139&yr=2025)
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