PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 12, 2:30 PM CDT
887
FXUS63 KPAH 121930
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
230 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- River flooding continues to impact most of the area. Most
river points are starting to crest or will crest soon and most
will see crests in moderate to major flood.
- Quiet with a warming trend through the weekend into Monday.
- More unsettled pattern takes over Thursday through the
weekend. Widespread chances for showers return Thursday and
Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025
High pressure is overhead today along with upper level ridging that
extends from Texas to the Great Lakes. A warming trend kicks off
today through Monday. Highs return to the 70s tomorrow and Monday.
Breezy conditions tomorrow as the sfc pressure gradient
tightens ahead of an approaching cold front.
Monday a shortwave aloft moves along the US/Canadian border and
through the Great Lakes and pulls a trailing cold front through the
area. The better moisture with this system will stay to our east
though a few stray showers could clip southwest Indiana.
Dry and seasonable weather returns Tuesday and Wednesday with sfc
high pressure present and highs generally in the 60s. The pattern
then shifts to one that is more unsettled on Thursday through the
weekend. A large sfc low develops over the northern Plains and
pushes east with some precipitation out ahead on Thursday. There are
discrepancies with this precip as to whether or not we get any
between the EC and GFS. The EC is the drier solution with us seeing
very little precip on Thursday compared to the GFS. A cold front
moves through on Saturday and is a focus for more showers and storms
Saturday. Right now precip amounts don't look too concerning with
regards to flooding. Right on the heels of this system is a larger
low pressure system aloft over the Four Corners region.&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025
VFR conditions expected through the end of the period. Mostly
clear skies today with a few passing high clouds later this
evening and tonight. Winds will remain light and variable today
and then pick up out of the south tomorrow.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY
AVIATION...SHAWKEY
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 12, 2:30 PM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202504121930-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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