ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 10, 3:46 PM EDT
460
FXUS61 KILN 101946
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
346 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressures system moving through the Tennessee Valley will
bring a chance of showers to areas along and south of the Ohio River
tonight. High pressure and a dry but cooler airmass will build into
the region for Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Mid level short wave energy will move across the lower Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys this evening into the overnight hours as it
rotates through the base of the upper level trough. This will allow
for shower activity back to our west to shift east across mainly our
southern areas through late afternoon and into this evening. Will
handle this with chance pops across mainly our far south. With some
lingering instability, a few embedded thunderstorms will also be
possible into this evening, mainly for areas to the south of the Ohio
River. The shower activity will taper off later tonight as the short
wave moves off to our east. Lows tonight will be in the 35 to 40
degree range.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
An axis of surface high pressure will build into the area from the
west through the day on Friday. With a fair amount of lingering low
level moisture, clouds will persist through the morning hours and
into early afternoon, but we may begin to see a decreasing cloud
trend from the west later in the afternoon as the high builds in.
Temperatures will be seasonably cool with highs in the mid 40s to
lower 50s.
As the high moves overhead Friday night, mostly clear skies and
decreasing winds are expected. This will lead to areas of frost late
as temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Closed low along the Atlantic seaboard at the beginning of the
period will move further east allowing mid level ridging and surface
high pressure to spread into the region over the weekend.
Temperatures will be moderating, but relatively clear and calm
conditions Saturday night may allow temperatures to be cold enough
for frost.
Robust short wave will move from the northern Plains into the upper
Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday night. This will push a cold
front across the forecast area on Monday with showers and some
thunderstorms occurring ahead of the front.
Secondary short wave dropping down the back side of the mid level
trough carved out by the initial system will move through on
Tuesday. Cannot rule out a few showers with this but nothing of
significance.
High pressure will build in Wednesday. Heading into Thursday there
is timing uncertainty with the approach of the next system. Thus
have kept PoPs on the low side.
Temperatures will warm up briefly ahead of the front on Monday and
then settle in back below normal for the rest of the period.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Some clearing has worked into our west early this afternoon but this
has begun to fill in with diurnal cu. An upper level disturbance
will spread into the region late this afternoon and into this
evening. This will result in scattered showers and perhaps an
embedded thunderstorm, mainly for areas along and south of the Ohio
River. Will cover this threat with a VCSH at KCVG and KLUK.
Otherwise, MVFR cigs will redevelop heading into tonight and
continue through Friday morning, with some IFR cigs possible across
central Ohio. Cigs will gradually lift into VFR through the afternoon
hours on Friday.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 10, 3:46 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202504101946-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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