PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 8, 12:57 AM EDT
200
FXUS61 KPBZ 080457 AAC
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1257 AM EDT Tue Apr 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Much colder today with scattered morning snow showers.
Unseasonably cool temperatures continue through the week with
more wet weather expected Thursday and through the first half of
the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Some lake enhanced snow showers late tonight and through the
morning hours.
- Temperatures 20 to 25 degrees below normal.
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For the overnight period...will be watching for the development
of lake enhanced snow showers in the strong cold advection and
northwest flow. The cold advection is impressive for this time
of year, but the atmosphere dries out very quickly. Latest
forecast soundings show a thin cloud layer, but with the colder
air, the DGZ will fall to within the area of saturation.
Soundings are showing instability increasing withing the cloud
deck so snow showers will be a threat throughout the night. Will
need to watch and see if any bands initiate. Latest CAM models
are showing some bands developing, but the timing and location
are different. Would expect gusty winds overnight as well.
High pressure to the west, and slowly rising heights aloft,
will erode the snow showers today and work to dissipate
lingering stratocu. The cold airmass in place should lead to
areal temperature that is around 20 to 25 degrees degrees below
the daily average.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Below normal temperatures Wednesday.
- Precipitation returns late Wednesday through Thursday.
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Broad surface high pressure will maintain dry conditions
through Wednesday before rain returns ahead of an approaching
low late in the day. The mentioned low center is progged to
then pass north of the region on Thursday. Warm advection in
southerly flow will moderate temperatures. While rainfall
amounts of over a half inch are currently unlikely (less than
20%), higher elevations could see closer to that amount due to
upslope flow.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Below-average temperatures expected through Saturday
- Precipitation ends Saturday
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Long-range ensemble models remain consistent, showing a cool
pattern through Saturday. A large-scale trough over our region
will likely keep afternoon highs below 60 degrees, with less
than a 25% chance of exceeding that, during this time period.
There's a possibility of continued precipitation Friday into
Saturday if this noted trough stalls as indicated by a few long-
range ensemble models.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The advancing SFC cold front is easily identifiable on radar,
satellite and in SFC OBs. Dry, clear and VFR conditions will
continue until the front reaches each port.
Rain begins quickly along the leading edge of the strongly
forced front as CIGs settle in near 5kft. Rain is expected to
switch quickly to snow (likely within an hour or less). Pockets
of heavier snow are embedded in this line and have already been
noted upstream at HZY and CLE. Any heavier bursts of snow can
drop to MVFR CIGs and IFR or LIFR VIS. All told the hit of
organized snow will be rather brief, perhaps an hour or so (CLE
saw snow for 75 minutes). Winds pick up sharply along the front
and shift to the W and then NW as it passes with increasing
gusts towards 25kts for most ports.
Behind the front, snow showers become more sporadic in northwest
flow most focused in the usual spots (FKL/DUJ). CIGs become a
hodgepodge of borderline MVFR/VFR with probabilities of CIGS
<3kft peaking near 60% for much of the area except for FKL/DUJ
which remain north of 80%.
SFC high pressure begins to slowly filter in by midnight but the
lingering upper trough is expected to make snow showers tough to
suppress through the day Tuesday.
Outlook...
High pressure to the west and gradually rising heights aloft
will end precipitation chances and erode VFR/MVFR stratocu by
Tuesday evening.
The next low pressure system arrive late Wednesday into Thursday
and is likely to initiate another prolonged period of
restrictions and occasional precipitation chances as deep Great
Lake troughing develops.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22/Frazier
SHORT TERM...Hefferan/22/88
LONG TERM...Hefferan/88
AVIATION...AK
Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 8, 12:57 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202504080457-KPBZ-FXUS61-AFDPBZ-AAC)
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