JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 10, 7:36 AM EDT
635
FXUS63 KJKL 101136
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
736 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A series of cold fronts will bring a potential of showers and
thunderstorms, with precipitation from the first front
affecting the area at times mainly today into Friday, and a
possibility of more rain with a second front Monday and Monday
night.
- Strong winds and hail can't be ruled out with the most intense
storms late today into tonight.
- Temperature swings can be expected over the next week due to the
quick moving nature of significant weather systems.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 735 AM EDT THU APR 10 2025
Radar shows an early morning line of showers having entered the
forecast area within the last couple of hours. Pockets of heavy
rain can be expected with this line which currently extends from
the I-75 corridor north to the I-64 corridor an northwest. Grids
have been adjusted to account for recent obs such as wind,
temperature, dewpoint and so on. No major changes were made to the
forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 507 AM EDT THU APR 10 2025
Current radar reflectivity shows a line of showers extending from
Columbus, Ohio southwest through Louisville, extending into far
Western Tennessee. These showers are preceding a cold front that is
also expected to move across Eastern Kentucky later today. Showers
will pick up in coverage and intensity over the next several hours,
with a small thunderstorm threat (15-20% chance) in the early
morning hours, mainly along and west of the I-75 corridor. Once this
line of showers and possible thunderstorms move through this
morning, expect breaks in cloud cover during the afternoon and areas
of sun. This could aid in developing thunderstorms later this
evening. The HRRR shows over multiple model runs a line of
thunderstorms developing later this afternoon across Western
Kentucky and Tennessee, moving east into the area later this
evening. With multiple models depicting abundant vertical momentum
as well as model soundings suggesting freezing level heights as
low as 5-6K feet, a wind and hail threat is possible. The Storm
Prediction Center has the area under a marginal risk of severe
weather for this reason. Models also depict the strongest storms
occurring west of the forecast area, and weakening some as the
forecasted line approaches later this evening. Showers will
continue overnight through Friday with a slight chance of
thunderstorms. Most areas will see around half an inch of rain out
of this system by the time showers move out late Friday evening.
Winds will be out of the south today with gusts of 15-20 mph
possible. Wind conditions become light and variable during the
overnight hours before veering to a northerly wind through Friday.
This will lead to temperatures rising into the lower 60s today,
and low to mid 50s tomorrow.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 507 AM EDT THU APR 10 2025
A significant upper level trough will be over the eastern CONUS at
the start of the long term period, with its axis likely just to
our east. Most precip should have also advanced to our east with
the trough. However, we should still be in a cool, upslope low
level flow persisting Friday night before diminishing on Saturday.
This may keep a few showers in our eastern and southeastern
counties. Have kept them in the form of rain for the time being,
but won't completely rule out a change to snow. Surface high
pressure building in from the west as the upper trough shifts
further east should bring dry weather area wide by late Saturday.
The surface high is expected to pass over on Saturday night with
light winds. Decreasing clouds with the cool and dry air mass in
place will probably result in frost once again for much of the
area by dawn on Sunday. The eastward departure of the surface
high on Sunday combined with upper level ridging building in from
the west will result in a sizable daytime warm-up.
A progressive pattern will continue, and the next upper level
trough is forecast to deepen as it moves eastward from the
northern and central plains on Sunday night to the Great Lakes
Monday night. An associated surface low will send a cold front
southeast toward our area on Monday, and then passing through
on Monday night. Moisture return will be cut short by the fast
moving system, but the system itself may be strong enough to
overcome the limited moisture and bring showers/thunderstorms. The
current forecast POP peaks in the chance category Monday night.
Another chilly air mass by mid April standards arrives behind the
system's cold front for midweek, with a potential for more frost
by dawn on Wednesday for some places.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT THU APR 10 2025
Showers have begun across the area and will continue over the
next several hours CIGS are starting to lower out ahead of this
line of showers. VFR conditions will drop fairly quickly to MVFR
conditions or lower. Pockets of heavy rain can also reduce
visibility as low as 2 miles early this morning. After the
initial line of showers, there may be a breif improvement in
conditions from west to east starting as early as 15Z. Precip
chances ramp back up later this afternoon through the overnight
with MVFR and IFR conditions returning. IFR conditions become
increasingly likely with low CIGS closer to the end of the TAF
period (near 12Z Friday). Some periodic spots of LIFR conditions
may be possible as well near KSJS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GINNICK
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 10, 7:36 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202504101136-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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