ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 9, 1:32 AM EDT
068
FXUS61 KILN 090532
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
132 AM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry conditions will continue tonight as high pressure
builds into the region. A disturbance will provide an increased
chance of precipitation late Wednesday through Thursday. Dry weather
will accompany another ridge of high pressure this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
With sfc high pressure traversing the region, clear skies and calm
winds will allow for good radiational cooling conditions and
widespread frost. Went a bit below guidance with low temps, which
should dip into the mid to upper 20s once again. Some lower 20s are
expected in rural/sheltered locales in central and south-central OH
and NE KY. The Freeze Warning remains in effect through the near term
period.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
The high will shift off to the east on Wednesday with southerly flow
developing for the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will be warmer, but
remain below seasonal normal values. A shortwave sliding from the
Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley will cause mid and high
clouds to increase heading into the afternoon and evening, with rain
developing into Wednesday night. QPF remains light (on the order of
a quarter inch) so flood impacts are not expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Strong meridional flow will be in place near the end of the work
week. Initial wave of rain showers pushes eastward Thursday morning,
but continued cyclonic flow with weak forcing in place may help
initiate scattered showers Thursday afternoon/evening. Thunderstorms
are possible as well on Thursday given the development of
instability.
Coverage in rain expected to decrease Friday as the mean H5 trough
aligns itself over the Ohio Valley. Cloudy and seasonably cool
conditions will continue, with highs hovering around the low to mid
50s. Some frost development possible Friday night as clouds begin to
clear out of the area, resulting in lows dropping into the 30s.
Over the weekend, H5 ridging will begin to build across the Midwest
region. This will result in a warming trend through the weekend,
which will continue into the beginning of the next work week. Dry
conditions are currently forecast throughout the weekend, but PoPs
will likely begin to increase the beginning of next week. Highs will
return to the 70s by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure sits over the Ohio Valley at the start of the
TAF period and surface winds are light and variable to calm. SKC at
all sites.
High cloud blowoff from our west creeps in Wednesday around sunrise
and we'll have a VFR BKN deck ahead of the next weather maker. Winds
also increase, becoming southerly around 10 knots on Wednesday.
Rain overspreads the region from west to east after 21Z with episodic
showers moving through as we head into the overnight. Not much
instability to speak of, so no thunder in the TAFs. MVFR and some IFR CIGs
arrive near the end of the TAF period and work in from west to east.
Winds continue out of the south/southeast, at 10 knots or less.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions possible early Thursday. MVFR CIGs are
possible Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ089>100.
IN...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...CA/KC
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 9, 1:32 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202504090532-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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