ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 8, 3:47 AM EDT
614
FXUS61 KILN 080747
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
347 AM EDT Tue Apr 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Chilly, but dry, conditions continue as high pressure builds into
the region. By midweek, another disturbance will be moving in from
our west, bringing renewed chances for precipitation. Temperatures
moderate to be a bit warmer, but still remain below average for the
time of year.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Temperatures rise back into the 30s shortly after sunrise and Freeze
Warning will expire.
Ridging aloft and surface high pressure continue to move into the
region on Tuesday. Mass subsidence allows for mostly sunny skies
while continued northwesterly flow and cold air advection keep
temperatures chilly. Highs reach the low to mid 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As the surface high pressure moves directly over the region, clear
skies and mass subsidence will once again allow temperatures to cool
below freezing. Overnight lows Tuesday night fall to the mid
twenties. Contrary to Monday night, Tuesday night's winds will be
very light to nearly calm, promoting more widespread frost formation.
Have gone ahead and issued a Freeze Watch for this time period, with
the thinking that the day shift will likely end up upgrading to a
warning.
Chose to not go with the full Warning at this time due to
encroaching system to our west. Right now, it still appears that
thicker cloud blowoff from this system won't affect us until after
12Z ish on Wednesday (therefore, our temps will cool effectively).
However, in coordination with our western neighbors, have simply gone
with the Watch at this time.
By Wednesday morning, return southerly flow moves back into the area
as a weak shortwave swings down through the larger flow. High temps
reach the upper 40s (along/north I-70) to upper 50s (along Ohio
River)- a full ten degrees warmer than the previous day. Clouds begin
to thicken/lower and precipitation chances are reintroduced to the
area by Wednesday late morning with isentropic lift of the warm front.
Might see some brief mixed precip or even some snow early on in
northeast Indiana/ northwest Ohio but precip quickly changes over to
rain. No instability to speak of, so expecting stratiform. QPF
footprint light with this initial round of rain, so no renewed
flooding concerns.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A mid level long wave trough will develop into the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Friday. This process will be aided
by several embedded mid level s/wvs as they move within the trough,
helping it to be "carved" out.
For Wednesday night into Thursday, one of those mid level s/wvs will
induce a wave of low pressure which will cross the region, bringing
more convective type pcpn in the form of showers. There could be a
rumble of thunder across the southern zones. After lows mainly in the
40s, highs on Thursday will range from the lower 50s north to the
lower 60s south.
For Thursday night into Friday, an associated cold front with the
low will have passed east of the region. However, additional s/wv
energy will keep the chance for showery pcpn, with eastern areas
mostly seeing that threat on Friday. After lows in the mid 30s to
the lower 40s, it will be cooler with highs in the upper 40s to the
lower 50s.
The majority of operational models continue to show that a mid level
closed circulation will likely develop near or just to our east by
Saturday. At this time, additional showers will likely remain to our
east if the current forecast holds up. With some clearing expected
for western areas Friday night into Saturday morning, the potential
for some frost formation exists, while eastern areas linger in some
cloud cover as they rotate around the mid level circulation. After
lows ranging from the lower 30s northwest to the upper 30s east,
highs will range from the mid to upper 50s.
For the period Sunday into Monday, it appears that high pressure at
the surface and aloft will move east through the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley. After another chilly start Sunday morning (mid 30s with
some frost possible), highs will warm into the lower to mid 60s. For
Monday, increasing southerly flow and WAA will boost highs into the
lower to mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cold front has sagged southeast through the Ohio Valley, leaving
northwesterly flow and mostly clear skies in its wake. Winds remain
somewhat gusty in the cold air advection behind the front, so have
kept gusts to 20 knots or so in the TAFs for at least several more
hours. These should decrease in intensity by early morning as high
pressure scoots in from the northwest.
Because of the increased winds, not really concerned about fog
despite the clear skies. However, satellite nighttime microphysics
actually depicting fog creeping up through southern Indiana's rivers
and lowest lying areas despite observed winds around 10 knots- so
this might be something to watch.
Tuesday arrives clear and with high pressure remaining in control.
Northwesterly flow continues, around 10 knots. Some high clouds begin
to spin in from the west as the next system encroaches.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions possible Wednesday into Thursday.
MVFR ceilings possible Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Freeze Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
Freeze Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for OHZ026-
034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Freeze Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for KYZ089>100.
Freeze Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for
KYZ089>100.
IN...Freeze Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
Freeze Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for INZ050-
058-059-066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...CA
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 8, 3:47 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202504080747-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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