CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 6, 4:12 PM EDT
605
FXUS61 KCLE 062012
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
412 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build across the area from the west
tonight. On Monday, another low pressure moves into the region,
bringing a strong cold front east Monday afternoon. A surface
trough lingers on Tuesday before high pressure returns for mid-
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A low pressure system over the southern and Mid-Appalachian is
slowly tracking eastward. We will continue to see a few
scattered rain and/or snow showers this afternoon into this
evening. POPs will taper off from west to east during the late
evening hours. A weak high pressure system will briefly build
in from the west tonight. Skies will clear out late tonight for
most of the area as well. Overnight low temperatures will drop
into the lower 30s.
A strong, sharp upper level trough will dig across the Great
Lakes region on Monday. A strong cold front will move through
during the late afternoon. Before the front arrives, high
temperatures will climb into the upper 40s to lower 50s. As
the strong front moves through, temperatures will quickly fall
into the 30s. There will be brief band of rain showers changing
to snow showers associated with the cold front moving through.
Winds will become northwesterly 15 to 25 mph gusting up to 30
mph behind the front. 850 mb temperatures will drop to -14C by
Monday night and this will flare up some scattered lake effect
snow showers downwind of Lake Erie across the primary Snowbelt.
A light dusting to 1 inch of snowfall maybe possible.
Temperatures will be much colder Monday night in the lower to
middle 20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
On Tuesday, WNW'erly to NW'erly flow aloft affects our region
as an embedded shortwave disturbance sweeps generally SE'ward
across our region. At the surface, a ridge builds from the Upper
MS Valley and western Great Lakes. This weather pattern at the
surface and aloft will maintain an unusually-cold air mass
across our region. Stabilizing subsidence accompanying the ridge
will promote fair weather in most of our CWA. However, a
NW'erly mean low-level flow of sufficiently-cold air
over/downwind of ~8C Lake Erie, forecast to back to WNW'erly
with time, will allow lake-effect snow (LES) showers to impact
far-NE OH and NW PA before the LES dissipates by nightfall
Tuesday evening as lake-induced CAPE wanes via low-level dry air
advection and the lowering/stabilizing subsidence inversion
accompanying the aforementioned ridge. However, the LES may be
steady to heavy at times Tuesday morning courtesy of an upstream
moisture connection to Lake Huron/resulting corridor of greater
lake- induced CAPE over Lake Erie and the potential for
moderate to strong ascent to be maximized in a cloudy DGZ about
0.5 to 1 km thick. Additional snow accumulations on Tuesday are
expected to be two inches or less. Late afternoon highs on
Tuesday are expected to reach only the upper 20's to mid 30's in
NW PA, the mid to upper 30's in NE OH, and the upper 30's to
lower 40's farther west.
Fair weather is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday morning as
the aforementioned surface ridge crests E'ward across our region and
the ridge aloft builds from the west. Partial clearing, easing
surface winds, and low humidity accompanying the ridge will promote
efficient radiational cooling Tuesday evening through daybreak
Wednesday. Thus, lows are expected to reach the upper teens to upper
20's in NW PA and the mid 20's to lower 30's in northern OH around
daybreak.
During Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night, flow aloft is
expected to back from W'erly to SW'erly as the ridge exits E'ward
and a trough axis aloft approaches from the north-central U.S. and
western Great Lakes. The accompanying surface trough overspreads our
region from the west and the consensus of latest available NWP model
guidance depicts the embedded surface low moving from the Lower MO
River Valley toward northern IN. Widespread precip will overspread
our region generally from west to east as the low pressure system's
warm conveyor belt undergoes moist isentropic ascent aloft. The
precip is expected to mainly fall as rain, but rain should mix with
or change to wet snow at times Wednesday evening into early Thursday
morning via the wet-bulb effect. Any snow accumulations are expected
to be less than one inch. Wednesday afternoon's highs are expected
to reach the upper 30's to mid 40's as low-level WAA develops ahead
of the low pressure system. Lows are expected to reach the mid 20's
to mid 30's around midnight Wednesday night before readings begin to
moderate through daybreak as the WAA regime strengthens.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The trough axis aloft should shift from the western Great Lakes to
the eastern Great Lakes and Upper OH Valley on Thursday through
Thursday night, allowing the trough aloft to continue to reside over
our region. At the surface, the attendant surface low should move
ENE'ward from northern IN to upstate NY via the southern shore of
Lake Erie. Thus, a warm front extending E'ward from the low should
sweep N'ward through most of the land portion of our CWA on
Thursday, while the low's trailing cold front should sweep E'ward
across our CWA Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. Behind the
cold front, a surface ridge should build very slowly from the north-
central U.S. Periods of precip, mainly in the form of rain, are
expected to persist due to the following: moist isentropic ascent
associated with the low pressure system's warm conveyor belt; low-
level convergence/moist ascent along the cold front. Daytime highs
on Thursday should reach the mid 40's to lower 50's before the cold
front passage. Low-level CAA behind the cold front should contribute
to lows reaching the 30's around daybreak Friday. Wet snow may mix-
in with rain Thursday morning and again Thursday night.
The trough at the surface and aloft should exit slowly E'ward on
Friday through Saturday as a ridge at the surface and aloft builds
slowly from the Intermountain West and Great Plains. Lingering
precip, mainly in the form of rain, associated with isentropic
ascent and frontogenetical convergence/associated ascent amidst
sufficient moisture in the low pressure system's TROWAL should end
gradually from west to east on Friday through Saturday. Wet snow may
mix with rain Friday morning and again Friday night into Saturday
morning. Daytime highs should reach the mid 40's to lower 50's on
Friday and the upper 40's to mid 50's on Saturday due to partial
clearing amidst a weakening CAA regime at the surface and aloft
across our CWA. Friday night's lows should reach the 30's.
Current odds favor fair weather on Saturday night through Sunday as
the aforementioned ridge at the surface and aloft should build from
the west. Overnight lows should reach the 30's to lower 40's
Saturday night. Clearer sky and greater daytime warming amidst a
lowering/strengthening subsidence inversion should allow Sunday's
late afternoon highs to reach the 50's to lower 60's.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Conditions have improved to mostly VFR ceilings across the area.
Ceilings will remain mainly VFR through this TAF period. There
could be some MVFR ceilings returning at CAK between 06z and
14z Monday morning. There could also be some MVFR to IFR
ceilings returning at YNG after 08z through 14z Monday.
Otherwise, the rest of the ceilings should be 5000 feet or
higher. Winds will start out from the north 5 to 10 knots this
afternoon. Winds will become light and variable tonight. Winds
will become southwest by Monday morning 8 to 13 knots. Gusty
winds will return over NWOH by Monday morning up to 20 knots.
Outlook...Additional non-VFR conditions possible in rain and
snow showers Monday afternoon and then mainly in Northeast Ohio
and Northwest Pennsylvania Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Variable winds around 5 to 10 knots persist over Lake Erie for
the rest of today as a ridge lingers over the lake. On Monday,
winds become S'erly to SW'erly around 5 to 15 knots during the
morning as the ridge begins to exit E'ward. During Monday
afternoon through evening, winds veer to NW'erly and freshen to
15 to 25 knots as a cold front sweeps SE'ward across Lake Erie.
Behind the front, a ridge builds from the Upper Midwest. Waves
of 3 feet or less ahead of the cold front build to as large as 4
to 8 feet behind the front. A Small Craft Advisory will be
needed.
The ridge continues to build from the Upper Midwest on Tuesday
through Wednesday and then begins to exit E'ward Wednesday
night. Accordingly, W'erly to NW'erly winds ease gradually from
15 to 25 knots to 5 to 15 knots on Tuesday. Waves as large as 4
to 8 feet subside gradually to 3 feet or less by midnight
Tuesday night. During Wednesday morning through sunset
Wednesday evening, variable winds around 5 to 10 knots and waves
of 3 feet or less are expected. E'erly to SE'erly winds around
10 to 15 knots develop Wednesday night as waves remain 3 feet
or less.
A low should track ENE'ward from northern IN to upstate NY via
the southern shore of Lake Erie on Thursday through Thursday
night. Accordingly, E'erly to SE'erly winds around 10 to nearly
20 knots should back gradually to N'erly. Waves remain mainly 3
feet or less with occasional 4 footers possible. Behind the low,
a ridge builds gradually from the north-central United States
through Friday. N'erly to NW'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots and
waves of 3 feet or less are expected.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...77
MARINE...Jaszka
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 6, 4:12 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202504062012-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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