LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 7, 6:49 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...
382
FXUS63 KLMK 071049
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
649 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Areal flooding will slowly diminish today but river flooding will
continue into the second half of April.
* A hard freeze is expected tonight with many locations dropping
into the middle and upper 20s. A Freeze Warning has been issued.
* A freeze will be possible Tuesday night/Wednesday morning as well,
with the coldest readings taking place in the Blue Grass in the
middle and upper 20s.
* Showers return to the region Wednesday night through Friday but
total rainfall amounts will be light and should not have an impact
on river flooding.
* Light patchy frost will be possible Friday night in traditionally
cold spots.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025
Now - Mid Morning...
Skies are beginning to clear as the previous system continues to
move off to the east. We will continue to see gradual clearing from
northwest to southeast through the remainder of the overnight and
into the morning hours. Current temperatures are in the upper 30s
and low 40s, expected to fall a bit more by morning.
Today and Tonight...
Upper trough begins to swing through the region in the short term,
bringing another cold front later this afternoon and into the
evening. Continued northwesterly flow and good sunshine will put
high temperatures in the upper 50s and a few areas reaching the low
60s. Ahead of the cold front, in the afternoon, winds may gust 20-
25mph as pressure gradients slightly tighten and a very weak LLJ
moves over the region and ample mixing helps to bring those winds
down to the surface. Some guidance hints at very light, shallow
showers moving along the cold front. Makes sense given the right
entrance of the upper jet and strong cold front, however, there is
very limited moisture to work with. Will introduce a 10-15% PoP over
the Bluegrass, where forcing is best.
Behind the front, CAA, light northwesterly flow, and clear skies
will allow for temperatures to fall into the mid-upper 20s over the
northern half of the region and the upper 20s and low 30s over the
southern half. Due to these temperatures, a Freeze Warning has been
issued for tonight into Tuesday morning (6-14Z). Given warm and wet
conditions the last week, some vegetation could be susceptible to a
freeze, so cover plants tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025
Tuesday through Tuesday Night...
Chilly Canadian high pressure dropping from Ontario to the Carolinas
will bring us mostly clear skies with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees
below normal. After max temps Tuesday afternoon a few degrees either
side of 50, the mercury will tumble into the upper 20s and lower 30s
Tuesday night. Temperatures will be coolest in the Blue Grass, east
of increasing high clouds ahead of the next showery system coming in
from the Plains.
Wednesday through Thursday Night...
A compact area of low pressure near Omaha Wednesday morning will
move quickly east to between Detroit and Cleveland by Thursday
evening. Initially most of the moisture and precipitation associated
with this system will remain to our north, but as the low moves
eastward its trailing cold front will be able to tap into some Gulf
moisture and generate rain for the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
Precipitable water values will be about normal for early/mid-April
and current QPF is only in the 1/4-1/2" range, with only a 15-30%
chance of seeing more than half an inch. As a result, this system is
not expected to have any meaningful impact on area river flooding.
Thursday looks breezy with west gusts of 25-30 mph possible.
Friday through Sunday...
The axis of an upper trough stretching from eastern Canada to the
Gulf will gradually push off to the east on Friday, bringing an end
to the scattered showers. The weekend looks dry as upper ridging
deamplifies and spreads eastward from the Plains into the Great
Lakes and OH/TN Valleys. Looks like it will be a pleasant weekend
with partly cloudy skies and afternoon temperature mostly in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 649 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025
IFR CIGs will continue to lift/thin over the next several hours.
Some patchy fog is possible at the airports, however, only mentioned
in the HNB TAF at this time since they have cleared out. Through the
day today, winds will back slightly and BKN CIGs 4-5kft will move
over the region in the afternoon as a low pressure system over the
Great Lakes moves southeast. Another cold front will move through
this evening bringing a N/NW wind overnight. There is a very small
chance for very light rain along the front over LEX/RGA, however,
confidence remains low and not mentioned in the TAFs at this time.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Freeze Warning from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 10 AM EDT /9 AM
CDT/ Tuesday for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082.
IN...Freeze Warning from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 10 AM EDT /9 AM
CDT/ Tuesday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...SRW
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 7, 6:49 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202504071049-KLMK-FXUS63-AFDLMK)
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