IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 5, 4:02 AM EDT
491
FXUS63 KIWX 050802
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
402 AM EDT Sat Apr 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Diminishing rain this morning will redevelop especially south and
east this afternoon
- Upwards of an additional inch of rainfall is possible from
Portland to Lima
- Cool and occasionally wet weather continues through Thursday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Apr 5 2025
While a band of moderate rain continues along/south of the US 24
corridor, widespread convection across srn IN/OH has aided in
composite sfc boundary stalling down near the OH river. This as well
has shunted the H85 baroclinic zone south through cntrl IN
effectively ending any heavy rain threat. Will bag the prior flood
watch at issuance time.
Deep upper low over the swrn US will finally kick out late day into
west TX and then opens/accelerates newd through the OH valley.
Some additional light rain likely se half this aftn and perhaps
again late day Sun far se as decaying mid lvl deformation zone
shifts through downstate IN yet largely drying elsewhere as
chilly plains based ridge builds in across the lakes. Chill will
persist through Tue timed with general flow amplification aloft
across ern NOAM before moderating thereafter as se Canada upper
low shifts out. Leading disturbance in this evolution not as
deep and moisture starved Mon and will back off some from prior.
However following robust shortwave digging down across the
lakes looks to tap into some return flow by Thu with widespread rain
returning again.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1244 AM EDT Sat Apr 5 2025
There were some breaks in the northern edge of the deformation
zone near SBN where the rain has at least temporarily ended.
Farther southeast, light to occasionally moderate rain will
continue at FWA for the bulk of the TAF period. IFR conditions
should return to FWA this morning given the latest trends and
high resolution model data. A second wave along the front will
bring more light rain near or after 00Z at FWA.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ009-017-018-020-
022>027-032>034.
OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ001-002-004-005-015-
016-024-025.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Skipper
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 5, 4:02 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202504050802-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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