LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 27, 11:35 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...
272
FXUS64 KLIX 271635
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1135 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
The area over southern TX will eventually move this way delivering
sh/ts to our area. Several disturbances will develop with this
activity and move NE and east over the next few days. Two distinct
time frames of sh/ts moving into the area that will have the
potential to be strong or severe. The first will be late Friday with
an emphasis on Friday night into Sat morning. The next will be
Sunday night into Monday which will be discussed in the extended.
This first disturbance will move in with help from the H5 trough
moving east over the Baja Pen this morning. As it moves near our
area Friday, the disturbances over northern Mexico and south TX will
become associated with it and supported by it. This could help
intensify the storms associated with it as it moves east overnight
Friday. At the moment, SPC has a marginal risk of severe wx for
Friday into Sat mainly over west LA and SE TX. Models try to weaken
this area as it moves east, but there is no lowering of instability
as it moves east, so again we won't be backing off of any precip
numbers. At the very least, this will have the potential to produce
some heavy rainfall and flooding could be an issue. But we won't
lower the possibility that this complex of storms have a few that
become strong or severe. The main variables would be strong winds
and hail, and eventhough tornadic paramaters don't look impressive,
its never a good idea to rule them out completely.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
The next system will be provided by a cold front with some
contribution of disturbances moving out of the Rio Grande area as
well. This occurs Sunday night into Monday. SPC is showing this as
having a slight risk over a very large amount of real estate. The
extra forcing would provide the higher risk level with this system
in relation to the first with all severe wx modes possible. This
front will stall along the coast or near it and then pivot as the
next front tugs at it. The next front could impact the area by mid
next week. But we will take these one at a time to focus on.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist
through the forecast period. Gusty winds around 20-25kts will be
possible at all area airports throughout the forecast period as
well. MSW
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
Light east winds will begin to shift to SE and rise to 15-20kt
today. A disturbance will move through the coastal waters Friday
night through Saturday with strong to severe storms which will cause
rapid wind shifts and speeds. Overall wind directions outside storms
will remain SE to S at 15-20kt through the weekend. A cold front
will move to the coast and stall by Monday morning and there is the
possibility that at least some of the coastal waters develop a north
wind at 10-15kt Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 60 79 62 76 / 0 20 50 90
BTR 63 81 65 78 / 10 40 70 90
ASD 62 80 64 76 / 0 10 40 80
MSY 65 79 67 76 / 0 20 50 90
GPT 62 76 64 73 / 0 0 30 70
PQL 59 78 62 76 / 0 0 20 70
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...TE
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 27, 11:35 AM CDT ...New AVIATION... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503271635-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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