IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 25, 7:42 PM EDT
338
FXUS63 KIWX 252342
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
742 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and cool into tonight and Wednesday.
- Thursday through this weekend will feature a warming trend and
periodic chances for showers and storms. The best chances for
rain are Thursday night into Friday morning (50-60%), and
Sunday into Sunday night (70%).
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Quiet and cool wx will persist tonight through Wednesday night as a
baroclinic zone of f-gen driven rain showers remains draped off to
the south and southwest under northwest flow aloft. Upper ridging
does look to dampen eastward from the Northern Plains to the lower
Great Lakes Thursday into Friday, with theta-e advection ramping up
within strengthening low level southwest flow. Elevated showers will
develop on Thursday on the nose of the associated LLJ and theta-e
plume, though better prospects for measurable rain look to once
again be over IL and sw IN per a model consensus. Better chances (50-
60%) likely arrive later Thursday night into Friday morning along
the sfc warm front. Northward progression of this warm front will
dictate how warm we get Friday afternoon (NBM low 60s ne to mid
70s sw), with the farther south solutions more likely to verify
given the density sink fom cold Great Lakes water.
The weekend continues to appear periodically wet/stormy with moist
southwest flow in place in advance of an upper trough and developing
sfc reflection modeled to eject east from The Four Corners. Saturday
has the potential to be the warm/mainly dry day of the weekend with
the warm front off to the north, and the only potential forcing
mechanism for showers being a weakening lead shortwave lifting north
from the Lower MS Valley. Better rain/storm prospects arrive Sunday
into Sunday night with the sfc frontal wave. Cooler then into early
next week in the wake of this system.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 742 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025
VFR conditions continue through the TAF period with plenty of dry
air across the area as the final instability trough departs the area
and surface high pressure noses in. Low to mid level clouds appear
to be the norm late tonight into Wednesday as a shortwave dives
southeastward to southward. Mixing ensues tomorrow morning, but the
low level jet dissipates with that high pressure area nosing in so
expect sustained winds to stay at or below 10 kts. Light winds
overnight will be sandwiched by northwest or west northwest winds
this evening and Wednesday.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Roller
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 25, 7:42 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503252342-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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