PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 27, 3:44 AM CDT
558
FXUS63 KPAH 270844
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
344 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer today with continued warmth through the weekend.
- Could have some isolated strong to severe storms this
afternoon mainly up north, main threat is large hail.
- Wet weekend with numerous showers on Saturday, numerous
showers and storms on Sunday some of which may be strong to
severe.
- Another system comes through late Tuesday into Wednesday and
brings more showers and storms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
Warm today with warm air advection showers and isolated storms.
We're in a weak marginal risk from SPC for mainly large hail. Severe
parameters are not that strong with only around 500 J/kg of MUCAPE,
only 20-25 kts of bulk shear, mid level lapse rates of 6.5-7
degC/km, and 50s dew points. This would suggest mainly elevated
storms especially since there is a stout inversion along and near
the warm front. Precip will be mainly across northern portions of
the forecast area. Areas along and north of I-64 could see around
0.5"-0.75" of rain.
Friday is warm and dry with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and is
also going to be rather breezy with a tight sfc pressure gradient.
Then a subtle shortwave aloft rejoins the SW flow on Saturday and
brings numerous showers to the area. There is very limited to non-
existent instability so thunderstorms will be very isolated to non-
existent and there is no severe threat. There is still some coverage
and timing differences in the models and how Saturday evolves will
affect how Sunday plays out.
There are still several failure modes for Sunday (such as a cap
thanks to an EML), but the severe environment looks decent. There is
around 1,000-2,000 J/kg of MUCAPE, mid level lapse rates of 7-8
degC/km, 40-50 kts bulk shear (although the best shear, closer to 50
kts lags behind the boundary), and 60s dew points. While all modes
of severe are still possible at this time, analogs are pointing
towards more hailer events. There is also still some uncertainty
about timing and coverage overall, but the severe threat looks to be
mainly the afternoon and evening. Still something to keep an eye on
with each model cycle. Between Saturday and Sunday the total
rainfall for the quad state could be around an inch to an inch and a
half.
We return to being dry and cool on Monday as high pressure at the
sfc builds in behind the cold front. Highs will be in the 50s and
60s. Tuesday also looks to be dry as we transition to SW flow aloft
with our next system approaching. There are still some timing and
placement discrepancies with this next system, but precip could come
back as early as Tuesday night. In each scenario Wednesday looks
wet. Tuesday also starts a warming trend with temperatures back
above average again by Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 650 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025
Primarily VFR conditions are forecast through Thursday as mid
and high layer clouds increase across the region later tonight
and Thursday. The eastward extension of a warm front developing
over the Plains into the Missouri Valley will result in the
potential for scattered showers across northern portions of the
forecast area on Thursday, primarily impacting KMVN/KEVV/KOWB.
While VFR conditions should prevail, the showers could briefly
result in visibility reductions to MVFR at times. Light and
variable winds tonight will veer southeast by morning, then pick
up from the south around 10 knots with some gusts to 15 knots by
late morning and afternoon.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY
AVIATION...RJP
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 27, 3:44 AM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503270844-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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