JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 24, 5:20 AM EDT
678
FXUS63 KJKL 240920
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
520 AM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A series of sfc waves crosses the area tonight into Wednesday
with successive rounds of showers - mainly affecting northeast
parts of the state - but with generally a third of an inch or
less of total rainfall.
- Near-normal temperatures are expected for much of the work week,
but a significant warming trend is expected by next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT MON MAR 24 2025
08Z sfc analysis shows the cold front now southeast of the state
with a weakening area of showers and lower clouds departing the
area, as well. High clouds remain behind while the winds are
running from the northwest at 5 to 10 mph with some higher gusts.
Colder air is is inbound on those winds with temperatures
currently varying from the mid 40s northwest to the lower 50s in
the far southeast. Meanwhile, dewpoints range similarly from the
lower 40s northwest to the low 50s in the far southeast.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in
fairly good agreement aloft despite a several quick moving waves
of significance moving through the Ohio Valley during the short
term portion of the forecast. They all depict the first of these
transitioning through eastern Kentucky this morning with an
accompanying axis from the deep 5h trough north of the eastern
Great Lakes. While this passes quickly, another associated impulse
zips into the state on northwest flow this evening passing
through the JKL area by midnight. Next up, a stronger trailing
one at mid levels swings into the northern parts of the state
early Tuesday with ample energy pressing south into eastern
Kentucky by midday and continuing through the afternoon - a little
quicker with the GFS cluster than the ECMWF favored one. The
still relatively small model spread aloft supported using the NBM
as the starting point for the forecast grids through the period.
Did make some adjustments to incorporate more CAMs guidance into
the PoPs for later tonight and Tuesday.
Sensible weather features a breather for the area today between a
rapid successions of clippers moving through this part of the
state due to the anchoring effect of the nearby trough to the
north of the region. Each of these appears enough to bring decent
rain chances to eastern Kentucky, but mainly favoring the
northeast parts. Despite the rain of the past night, we will
likely see some lower RH (below 30 percent) for a time in the
east this afternoon along with breezy afternoon winds. For now,
will highlight this in the Fire Weather forecast discussion and
hold off on an SPS or any other headlines. The first shot of
showers then arrives after dark this evening from the northwest
and quickly spreads east through the night with some potential to
linger for the tri-state region near the Ohio River as more energy
pours in aloft by midday, Tuesday. Only a brief lull between
these waves is anticipated at this time with more showers possible
by evening from the next system. The clouds and striation in pcpn
chances will keep temperatures more uniform than typical tonight,
but a definite warmer area of the CWA will be noted to the
southwest on Tuesday - freer of the lower clouds and sustained
rain chances. Rainfall amounts, at best, look to be a third of an
inch from these waves through mid week - not exactly providing
much relief to the dry fire weather conditions of the northeast
parts of the state.
The changes to the NBM starting point consisted primarily of
lowering dewpoints a notch this afternoon for extra mixing. As
for PoPs, mainly enhanced them with timing and coverage details
from the CAMs tonight through Tuesday.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 520 AM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025
When the long term forecast period opens on Tuesday night, Eastern
Kentucky will be in a regime of cyclonic flow around the base of a
longwave trough aloft. A couple of shortwave impulses are likely to
approach the forecast area in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame,
although the exact evolution of these features remains a bit unclear
in the forecast guidance. The greatest signal for precipitation will
come earlier in the day on Tuesday, but activity is likely to linger
into the evening hours. Atmospheric moisture looks limited, but the
cyclonic vorticity advection around the base of the trough could
provide just enough dynamic lift to squeeze out more light rain
showers overnight. On Wednesday, surface flow is expected to shift
towards a more northwesterly orientation. This corresponds with the
trough axis shifting to the east, resulting in cooler temperatures
at both the surface and aloft. Moisture looks even more limited on
Wednesday, but continued cyclonic flow and orographic lifting
enhancements result in chance PoPs along and northeast of the KY-15
corridor. Afternoon highs will be slightly cooler than the day
prior, dipping down into the 50s across the entire forecast area.
These values are slightly below climatological norms, but not cold
enough to result in the wintery precipitation that one might expect
on the backside of a clipper system. A few flakes cannot be ruled
out atop Black Mountain, but most precipitation that reaches the
ground on Wednesday will do so in the form of light rain.
A clearing trend is expected by Wednesday evening as a surface high
pressure system builds into the Greater Ohio River Valley. These
clear skies will favor efficient diurnal cooling overnight, yielding
low temperatures below freezing in the valleys and in the lower half
of the 30s atop ridges. Combined with any leftover near-surface
moisture from the early week showers, the clear skies and cool
temperatures will favor frost formation on Thursday morning.
Agricultural interests are accordingly encouraged to monitor this
forecast closely, but the pattern begins to shift on Thursday night.
Under mostly clear skies, temperatures should recover into the lower
60s on Thursday afternoon. The surface high pressure system is
expected to slide eastward as the day progresses, leading to SSW
return flow overnight. This will be represented on the surface
analysis map as a warm front, and its associated isentropic lift
could produce a few showers and storms on Friday morning as the
boundary lifts northeast. Its passage will mark the establishment of
a warm sector, and midlevel height rises through the weekend will
favor daytime highs in at least the mid/upper 70s by the weekend.
The deterministic NBM data used to populate the forecast grids tends
to under-do high temperatures during these prolonged southerly to
southwesterly return flow regimes, but increasing amounts of cloud
cover could limit the amount of diurnal warming that is actually
realized. After collaboration with neighboring forecast offices,
next weekend's highs were not explicitly raised into the 80s quite
yet. Regardless, the noticeable late-week warming trend will prime
the atmosphere for renewed precipitation chances as a the next
synoptic storm system approaches on Sunday. Model spread remains too
high to discuss timing and hazard details, but there is a signal for
a prolonged period of southwesterly low/mid-level flow out ahead of
this system. This moisture return could produce enough instability
for strong to severe storms across western portions of the forecast
area, but mesoscale features such as downsloping could mitigate that
potential. Likewise, the magnitude and evolution of the parent low
pressure system remains uncertain, and this will greatly affect the
organizational abilities of any convection that forms on Sunday. We
will keep a close eye on the evolution of these governing features
as the latest forecast guidance comes in, and we encourage those
with outdoor or travel plans on Sunday to stay tuned to future
forecast updates. For now, expect a warmer and wetter end to the
long term forecast period, with both high and low temperatures above
the climatological averages for late March.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT MON MAR 24 2025
The cold front with its showers is moving east through the area
which means the worse aviation conditions will be in place early
with rapid improvement pre-dawn. Some MVFR CIGs and visibilities
accompany this front and trail for an hour or so. Once this
boundary moves on southeast of the terminals they will all
gradually improve to VFR and stay there after 12Z - through the
rest of the forecast period. Also, with the shower activity, south
to southwesterly winds sustained around 10 to 15 knots with gusts
up to 25 knots will pass eastern Kentucky before slackening off
for the rest of the overnight generally from the west; however,
winds are expected to increase out of the west toward 17Z with
sustained winds around 10 to 15 knots and gusts 20 to 25 knots
through the afternoon.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...VORST/GREIF
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 24, 5:20 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503240920-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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