IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 21, 6:28 PM EDT
508
FXUS63 KIWX 212228
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
628 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Two systems move across the Great Lakes this weekend, bringing
a slight chance for light rain showers tonight before snow
showers mix in early Saturday and another, more widespread
chance for mainly rain area- wide on Sunday before again some
snow showers begin to mix in on Monday.
- Seasonable to slightly cooler than normal temperatures
continue through the upcoming week with several additional
chances for rain/snow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025
An active week is ahead with multiple rain chances as a parade of
mainly weak weather systems moves through the Great Lakes and
Ohio River Valley regions. WAA and wind gusts up to 35 mph this
afternoon have helped to boost temperatures into the low 50s. A
brief ridge built into the area today but is working its way
east now as we look to the Upper Midwest for our next weather
system. A clipper-type system is currently centered over
Minnesota and will move into the Upper Great Lakes tonight, with
the system's attendant cold front brining increasing clouds and
chances for light rain/snow mix. Most of the precipitation will
fall as rain, with some changeover to snow anticipated as
temperatures will fall overnight into the low to mid 30s by
Saturday morning. Minimal, if any, accumulation is expected.
This system doesn't bring a big increase in moisture with it,
with most models suggesting it will be hard to come by anything
more than 0.05" of QPF.
Another, more robust chance for rain area-wide arrives Sunday as a
negatively tilted trough and upper level low pressure system move
across the Upper Great Lakes. Ahead of this system, southeasterly
flow will bring more moisture into the area (with dewpoints rising
from the teens to the 40s by Sunday afternoon) and subsequent
increasing chances for rain. Up to 0.5" of rain will be possible,
southeast of the US 24 corridor. As this system deepens over the
Great Lakes, additional rain/snow chances will be possible Monday on
the backside of the system.
For mid to end of next week, long range model guidance suggests a
high amplitude ridge will build across the western and central
CONUS, bringing a welcomed return to mild and dry conditions.
Temperatures become much more mild, with highs in the 60s to maybe
even the low 70s by the end of the week!
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025
Weak, moisture starved shortwave disturbance back west in IA
will race ewd this period. Some moistening and weak ascent ahead
of this sys will generate a few showers or sprinkles late but
mainly lead to a period of MVFR based cigs late tonight.
Otherwise gusty swrly winds will back nwrly after daybreak timed
with fropa with VFR development thereafter.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...T
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 21, 6:28 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503212228-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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